碳酸锂月度策略报告-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the destocking pace slowed down, and both supply and demand weakened. The market will shift from destocking to inventory accumulation, with an estimated inventory increase of at least about 5,000 tons. The fundamental weakening is expected to have a phased negative impact on prices. However, due to the current inventory structure and the medium - to - long - term bullish trading logic for lithium prices, there will still be restocking demand when prices fall [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - The monthly main contract of lithium carbonate rose 26%, and the prices across the industry chain strengthened. For example, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased from 96,420 yuan/ton on November 28, 2025, to 121,580 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, with an increase of 25,160 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Inventory - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons. Specifically, downstream inventory decreased by 894 tons to 38,998 tons, inventory in other links increased by 910 tons to 52,940 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 184 tons to 17,667 tons [4][5][19]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - The document presents charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene and lithium mica, and export profit of lithium hydroxide, etc., but no specific profit data is summarized [28][29]. 3.4 Production 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. Lithium spodumene - derived lithium production increased by 60 tons to 13,924 tons, lithium mica production increased by 70 tons to 2,936 tons, salt - lake lithium production increased by 70 tons to 3,145 tons, and recycled material - derived lithium production increased by 59 tons to 2,415 tons. In January 2026, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons, with salt - lake, mica, and recycled lithium production decreasing by 0.3%, 6.4%, and 7.4% respectively, and lithium spodumene - derived lithium production increasing by 0.7% [4][5][41]. 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - In January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons [4][5]. 3.4.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In January 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10.03% month - on - month to 363,400 tons [4][5][72]. 3.4.4 Lithium Batteries - In January 2026, the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of lithium - iron power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of lithium - iron energy - storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh [4][5][81]. 3.5 Terminal 3.5.1 New Energy Vehicles - The Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will have a good start in January 2026. New energy vehicles are expected to have a slight increase of 5% in the first quarter, but a 36% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][5][86]. 3.5.2 Energy Storage - The document presents charts of energy - storage battery capacity, start - up rate, bidding, winning bids, and installation, but no specific summarized data is provided [89][90]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The document presents charts of the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, but no specific summarized balance data is provided [91][92]. 3.7 Options - The document presents charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest of lithium carbonate closing prices, but no specific summarized data is provided [93][95][96].