南华期货2026年1月股指展望：业绩+美联储扰动偏强能否延续？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In January 2026, the stock index is more likely to continue its upward trend, but the upside space is limited by the performance verification results and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut expectations. The core drivers are the marginal loosening of the capital market after the new year and the continuous policy support. Key variables focus on the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman and the end - of - January interest - rate meeting. The A - share market has a relatively high valuation, and a callback in high - valuation sectors may occur if the performance forecast fails to meet expectations. In terms of style, large - cap stock indices are relatively dominant [2]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. Accumulating Momentum and Oscillating before Another Upturn No relevant content provided. 2. Core Influencing Factors of the January Stock Index: Performance Verification and Fed Game 2.1 Performance Forecast Disclosure Window, Earnings Verification Affects Valuation Sustainability As of December 2025, the PE - TTM of CSI 50 was 11.85, with a percentile of 88.38% and a historical percentile of 89.64%; for CSI 300, it was 14.18, 91.33%, and 87.08% respectively; for CSI 500, it was 33.91, 98.57%, and 82.37%; for CSI 1000, it was 46.71, 94.04%, and 69.29% [13]. 2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Disturbance: Replacement + Interest - Rate Meeting as Core Variables As of January 1, 2026, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% in January is 85.1%. The probability that the market expects the interest - rate decision to remain unchanged in the January interest - rate meeting is 51.7%. Employment data before the January interest - rate meeting may affect the market's interest - rate cut expectations. If the employment data shows an unexpected downward risk in employment, it will increase the expectation of an interest - rate cut and provide more impetus for domestic stock indices [14][15]. 2.3 Liquidity Loosening + Policy Expectations Escort, Strengthening Stock Index Drivers After the new year, market liquidity shows a marginal loosening trend. The release of previously tightened liquidity after the bank's year - end assessment and the absence of pre - holiday capital withdrawal pressure in January are conducive to keeping market capital interest rates low. The new - year layout of public funds and the position adjustment of social security funds are expected to form an incremental capital force, which is beneficial for the stock index's valuation repair and the development of a structural market [17]. 3. Outlook for the Future No relevant content provided.