集运指数欧线周报（EC）：市场博弈运价见顶时间-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current freight rates on the European route are fluctuating at a high level. The mid - to - late - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those in the early month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the separate quote of MSC has a significant increase [3]. - Politically and economically, the situation is neutral. There are events such as the US's "large - scale strike" on Venezuela and Trump's meeting with Netanyahu to promote the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza, but the progress is limited [3]. - In terms of capacity supply, it is a negative factor. The average weekly capacity deployment in November was 265,000 TEU, 290,000 TEU in December, and 310,000 TEU in January [3]. - The demand for container shipping on the European route remained strong at the end of 2025, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended Spring Festival stocking window period in 2026 and the replenishment demand of European importers, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. The overall demand showed strong resilience, supporting the continuous increase in freight rates [3]. - In the short term, the freight rates may peak in mid - January. The market has adjustment pressure, and future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of resuming flights [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Their Effects: - Spot Freight Rates: Bullish. Different alliances have different freight rate trends. For example, the OA alliance has a significant increase in freight rates from wk1 to wk2, and MSC's freight rates also rise significantly from wk1 to wk3 [3]. - Political and Economic Situation: Neutral. There are major international political events, but their impact on the container shipping market is not one - sided [3]. - Capacity Supply: Bearish. The capacity deployment is increasing month by month [3]. - Demand: Bullish. The demand for container shipping on the European route is strong, with continuous growth in booking volume and high fleet loading rates [3]. - Summary and Investment Viewpoints: The market is in an oscillating state. The short - term freight rates may peak in mid - January, and the trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the trends of various shipping route indexes including the European route index, the US - West route index, and the US - East route index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [6]. 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years through charts, including new - order volumes and order - to - fleet ratios for different types of container ships [11]. - Delivery Volume: Charts are used to display the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [14][16]. - Demolition Volume: The demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years is presented in charts [15][17]. - Future Delivery: The future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities, quarterly seasonal charts, and total future delivery volume over the years are shown in charts [20][22][23]. - Ship - Breaking Price: The ship - breaking prices of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change are presented in charts [27]. - New - Building Ship Price: The new - building prices of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index are shown in charts [28][29]. - Second - Hand Ship Price: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships in different loading capacities and ages are presented in charts [33][35][37]. - Existing Capacity of Container Ships: The existing capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, percentage, different loading capacities, age structure (including ships over 25 years old, average age, and ship - breaking average age), and the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships are shown in charts [42][44][45]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports): The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports in different weeks are presented in charts [57][59][61][63][65]. - Desulfurization Tower Installation: Information about container ships with installed desulfurization towers (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), those under desulfurization tower installation (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships (overall and by loading capacity) are presented in charts [67][68][71]. - Idle Capacity: The idle capacity of container ships (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), idle capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle capacity, and capacity under desulfurization tower installation are presented in charts [75][76][77].