——海外周报第121期：美国初请失业金人数好于预期-20260105

Employment - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 199,000, better than the expected 218,000, with the previous value revised from 214,000 to 215,000[6] - Continuing claims fell from 1.913 million to 1.866 million, against an expectation of 1.902 million[6] Economic Activity - The U.S. Weekly Economic Index (WEI) was stable at 2.23% for the week ending December 27, 2025, with a four-week moving average of 2.26%[13] - The German Weekly Activity Index (WAI) rose to 0.14% for the week ending December 21, 2025, compared to 0.1% the previous week[13] Retail and Mortgage Rates - The U.S. Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth increased to 7.6%, with a four-week moving average of 6.7%[17] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. slightly decreased to 6.15% from 6.18% the previous week[20] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone marginally tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the U.S. at 0.795, down from 0.807[38] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed a slight easing, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar improving from -24.125 pips to -21.5 pips[43] Commodity Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, following a 1.8% increase the previous week[34] - U.S. gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.69 per gallon, down 1.1% from the previous week[34] Federal Spending - U.S. federal spending for the calendar year 2025 is projected to be approximately $7.765 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%[54]