Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Treasury Bonds: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - Stock Index Futures: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - Precious Metals: Market volatility will significantly increase, and investors can exit long positions and wait and see for now [12][13]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Prices may continue the weak - oscillatory trend, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - Iron Ore: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: May continue the weak - oscillatory trend in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. - Ferroalloys: After the decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot losses expand [20]. - Crude Oil: The impact on the price is mixed, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22]. - Fuel Oil: High inventory is bearish, while the narrowing of the spot discount provides support. The main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26]. - Polyolefins: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [27][28]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to oscillate strongly [29][30]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [31][32]. - PVC: Expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium term [33]. - Urea: The downward space is limited [35][36]. - Para - Xylene (PX): May oscillate strongly in the short term, and investors can consider participating cautiously at low levels [37][38]. - PTA: May oscillate strongly in the short term, and investors can consider cautious operations at low levels [39]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [40]. - Short - Fiber: May oscillate strongly following the raw material prices, and investors should operate cautiously [41]. - Bottle Chips: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, and investors should participate cautiously [42]. - Lithium Carbonate: There is short - term support at the bottom, but prices are vulnerable to news, so investors need to operate cautiously [44]. - Copper: Expected to oscillate at a high level [45][46]. - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate at a high level [47][48][49]. - Zinc: Expected to maintain an oscillatory state [50][51]. - Lead: Expected to oscillate within a range [52][53]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Nickel: The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: Soybean meal can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and soybean oil can focus on long - position opportunities for call options in the low - level range [57]. - Palm Oil: Temporarily wait and see [58][60]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Temporarily wait and see [61][62]. - Cotton: Expected to operate strongly [63][66][67]. - Sugar: The upward space may be limited [68][70][71]. - Apples: Expected to operate strongly in the medium and long term, but the short - term de - stocking is slow [72][73][74]. - Hogs: Consider waiting and seeing [75][76]. - Eggs: Consider the positive - spread strategy [77][79]. - Corn and Starch: Corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait for the supply pressure to be further released [80][83]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Throughout the year, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts all had their worst annual performances [5]. - Open - Market Operations: On December 31, the central bank carried out 528.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 502.8 billion yuan [5]. - PMI Data: China's December official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all rose, indicating an expansion of business activities [5]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - Macro - Situation: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up [9]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, gold and silver main contracts closed down [11]. - Influencing Factors: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment [12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations [14]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the long term, rebar demand is declining year - on - year. In the medium term, it is the demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased, but inventory is higher than last year [14]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated at a high level [16]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Iron ore supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and port inventory is at a five - year high [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated slightly [18]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Coking coal production is decreasing, and coke demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts [18]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts closed down [20]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is slightly reduced, demand is weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. There is support at low levels [20]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly [21]. - Influencing Factors: The US arrest of the Venezuelan president has mixed impacts on oil prices. OPEC has confirmed a suspension of production increases in the first quarter [21]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly [23]. - Influencing Factors: High inventory in Singapore is bearish, while the narrowing of the spot discount provides support [24][25]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: The PP market in Hangzhou had some price increases, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted slightly. Market sentiment improved [27]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production enterprises actively reduced inventory, and market prices stopped falling and rebounded [27]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract closed down [29]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Raw material prices rose, production capacity utilization was high, but downstream demand was weak [29]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, natural rubber main contracts closed down [31]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply pressure from overseas exists, demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is accumulating seasonally [31]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract closed up [33]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: It is the traditional demand off - season, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [33]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract closed flat [35]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is increasing slightly, agricultural demand is expected to grow, and industrial demand is weak [35]. Para - Xylene (PX) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell [37]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is relatively stable, and the cost side may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors [37]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell [39]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is recovering, and processing fees are rising [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell [40]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, inventory is accumulating, and demand support is weakening [40]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose [41]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is at a relatively high level, and terminal demand is mainly to digest inventory [41]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract fell [42]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is increasing slightly, export growth rate is rising, and the cost side may be affected by geopolitical factors [42]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Before the holiday, the lithium carbonate main contract rose [43]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is at a high level, demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, and inventory is being reduced [44]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose slightly [45]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The processing fee for copper concentrate is falling, inventory is accumulating, and demand is in the off - season [45]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts rose [47]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Alumina supply is in excess, and aluminum processing enterprise operating rates are falling [47][48]. Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell [50]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is under pressure to decrease, and demand is in the off - season [50]. Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell [52]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is weak, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is at a low level [52]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the London tin main contract fell [54]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is tight, and demand has some resilience [54]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the London nickel main contract rose slightly [55]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production costs are expected to rise, but demand from the stainless - steel sector is weak [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose [56]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil is gradually recovering [57]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to decline [58]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production may decline, exports are weak, and domestic inventory is accumulating [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed prices oscillated [61]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are changing, and inventory is being adjusted [61]. Cotton - Market Performance: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton decreased in positions, and overseas cotton prices faced pressure [63]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Domestic production is high, but inventory accumulation is less than expected, and demand is resilient [66]. Sugar - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly, and overseas raw sugar prices fell [68]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, and import volume is expected to be high [70]. Apples - Market Performance: Domestic apple futures oscillated [72]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Inventory is at a low level, and production and quality have declined [72][73]. Hogs - Market Performance: The national average hog price fell [75]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is increasing, and demand after the festival has declined [75]. Eggs - Market Performance: The main contract for eggs fell [79]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is at a high level, but the supply side is gradually improving [77][79]. Corn and Starch - Market Performance: Corn and corn starch main contracts fell [80]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: New - season corn supply pressure is still there, and corn starch demand is slightly recovering [80][83].
西南期货早间评论-20260105
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2026-01-05 05:21