市场抢跑预期，资金推动铝价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current aluminum price trend is mainly driven by market expectations and capital rather than fundamentals. Although the short - term aluminum price may remain strong, there is significant upward pressure in January due to factors such as new domestic production capacity coming online, a significant decline in photovoltaic installation and automobile demand, and the approaching Spring Festival. For aluminum alloy, due to poor automobile demand expectations, it generally follows the aluminum price but may be relatively weaker [75]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In December, the overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market was to strengthen first, then fluctuate, and finally continue to strengthen. At the beginning of the month, the macro - sentiment improved, and the LME copper warehouse receipt cancellation on January 3 pushed up the copper price, driving up the aluminum price. On December 9, the non - ferrous metal sector corrected, and the aluminum price also dropped significantly. From the middle of the month, the aluminum price strengthened following the rise of other non - ferrous metals. At the end of the month, although other non - ferrous metals retreated, the aluminum price continued to rise and was stronger than the overseas market, possibly due to the market trading the catch - up logic. Meanwhile, downstream demand gradually weakened, and social inventory increased more than seasonally [7]. 3.2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - Federal Reserve Interest Rate Resolutions: In 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, with cuts of 50 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November, and 25 basis points in December. In 2025, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for most of the time and cut interest rates three times at the end of the year, each time by 25 basis points. In 2026, the expected interest rate is unchanged in January, and the subsequent interest rate decisions are uncertain [12]. - European Central Bank Interest Rate Resolutions: The European Central Bank cut interest rates multiple times from 2024 to 2025 and maintained the interest rate unchanged at the end of 2025. The interest rate decisions in 2026 are uncertain [14]. 3.3. Overseas and Domestic Macro Indicators - Overseas Macro Indicators: Include data on the US federal funds rate, PCE price index, CPI, and bond yields, as well as the eurozone's HICP, core HICP, and interest rates, and shipping freight indices [17]. - Domestic Macro Indicators: Include GDP growth rate, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rate, CPI, PPI, and deposit reserve ratio, as well as import and export data. In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached some consensus, which had a weakening impact on the market, and China's export resilience was strong [19][25]. 3.4. Aluminum Raw Materials and Production - Domestic Bauxite: The supply of domestic bauxite is still tight, but in December, the prices in Shanxi and Henan began to decline under pressure. Due to issues such as mining rectification and environmental protection supervision, it is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem of mine resumption in the short term. The long - term contract prices in Shanxi and Henan are expected to be lowered in January [28]. - Imported Bauxite: After the rainy season in Guinea ended, the import of bauxite increased rapidly, and the price of imported bauxite showed a downward trend. In November 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 15.109 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.87%. The resumption of production of AGB2A - GIC in Guinea will further intensify the oversupply situation, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to continue to decline [31]. - Alumina: At the end of December, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina decreased by 163 yuan/ton to 2668.5 yuan/ton. In December, there were both maintenance and resumption of production in alumina enterprises. In January, the oversupply situation of alumina will continue, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to policy developments [34]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of December, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 45.36 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating capacity was 44.59 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating capacity is expected to continue to increase in January [37]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Import: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was 147,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.47%. The export volume was 53,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 182.6%. The net import volume decreased. In the past two months, the LME aluminum price was stronger than the Shanghai aluminum price, resulting in an expanded import loss and a closed import window. In January, the import of electrolytic aluminum will continue to be restricted [40]. - Cost and Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum: In December, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 158 yuan/ton to 15,137 yuan/ton. The cost of alumina decreased, while the costs of electricity and pre - baked anodes increased [42]. 3.5. Aluminum Downstream Demand - Automobile: In November, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased significantly. However, due to the reduction of policy support and the pre - release of consumption, automobile production and sales are expected to decline significantly in January [50]. - Real Estate: From January to November, the real estate market was weak, with a decline in development investment, construction area, new construction area, and sales area. However, the release of the article "Improving and Stabilizing the Real Estate Market Expectation" in January 2026 has improved policy expectations and is expected to boost the real estate market [53]. - Infrastructure: In 2025, the issuance scale of new special bonds in China reached 4.59 trillion yuan, a record high. The large - scale issuance of special bonds in November is expected to drive up the demand for aluminum in infrastructure [56]. - Home Appliances: In November 2025, the production of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, while the production of refrigerators and washing machines increased. The export of air conditioners decreased, while the export of refrigerators and washing machines increased. With the advance release of 6.25 billion yuan of funds for consumer goods trade - in and the 14.4% month - on - month increase in the production schedule of three major white - goods in January, the demand for aluminum in home appliances is expected to increase [59]. - Photovoltaic: In November 2025, the new photovoltaic installation capacity decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Due to seasonal effects, the photovoltaic installation is expected to decline in January [62]. - Aluminum Products Export: In November, China's aluminum products export volume was 486,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.9%. The net export volume is expected to increase in January due to the strong LME aluminum price and seasonal effects [65]. 3.6. Inventory - In December, the de - stocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was significantly hindered [66].