航运衍生品数据日报-20260105

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [2] - Research Institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [3] - Analyst: Lu Dingyi [3] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [3] - Date: January 5, 2026 [3] Group 2: Freight Index - Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI): Present value is 1656, previous value was 1553, with a rise of 6.66% [4] - China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI): Present value is 1147, previous value was 1125, with a rise of 1.95% [4] - SCFI - US West Coast: Present value is 2188, previous value was 1992, with a rise of 9.84% [4] - SCFIS - US West Coast: Present value is 962, previous value was 924, with a rise of 4.11% [4] - SCFI - US East Coast: Present value is 3033, previous value was 2846, with a rise of 6.57% [4] - SCFI - Northwest Europe: Present value is 1690, previous value was 1533, with a rise of 10.24% [4] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: Present value is 1589, previous value was 1510, with a rise of 5.23% [4] - SCFI - Mediterranean: Present value is 3143, previous value was 2833, with a rise of 10.94% [4] Group 3: Market Review - Current European line freight rates are in high - level oscillations. The second - half - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those of the first - half - month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the separate quotes of MSC have a significant increase [5] - GEMINI Alliance: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1585, 40GP is 2550; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1635, 40GP is 2650, up 50 and 100 respectively compared to wk1 [5] - OA Alliance: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1535, 40GP is 2631; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1824, 40GP is 3068, a significant increase compared to wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [5] - PA Alliance: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1603, 40GP is 2806; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1645, 40GP is 2600; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [6] - MSC: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1700, 40GP is 2840; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1880, 40GP is 3140, up 180 and 300 respectively compared to wk1 [6] Group 4: Core View - The European line container shipping shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of futures and spot". Freight rates have rebounded for multiple weeks, with spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies have a strong willingness to control cabins and support prices [6] - On the demand side, benefiting from the Spring Festival stocking and restocking demand, the cabin loading rate has improved. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, and some airlines are tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious [6] - The freight rate may peak in mid - January. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of flight resumptions, and the market faces adjustment pressure [6] Group 5: Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]