Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stock of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, with a low inventory - consumption ratio of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply - demand report [8]. - There is no obvious bullish factor in South American weather in the short term. The weather in Argentine production areas is dry recently, but the soil moisture is suitable with no obvious adverse impact for now. Brazilian soybean sowing is nearly finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. With the expectation of a large Brazilian soybean harvest, the impact of the selling pressure during the January harvest on Brazilian CX premiums should be monitored. The sum of the US soybean futures price and Brazilian premiums is expected to decline, and M05 is expected to be relatively weak without special events [9]. - In China, the de - stocking of soybeans in January is expected to accelerate. Due to concerns about soybean shortages in the first quarter and extended customs inspections, downstream pre - holiday stocking is expected to be active, which supports domestic spot prices before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter causes a structural supply problem in China, which supports M03. M03 - M05 is still in a positive spread in the short term, but the risk lies in policy changes. The impact of stricter customs inspection policies, the volume, price, and shipping rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed supplies are hard to predict, so investors are advised to operate cautiously [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang), the basis values in Dalian, Tianjin, and other places on December 31st were 411, 391, etc., with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was 371 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 129 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 35 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 534, with a decrease of 2; the spot spread (in Guangdong) was 300; the spread of the main contract was 384, with an increase of 9 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9584, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 130.00 cents per bushel, with a daily increase of 0. The Brazilian soybean import gross margin per ton was also presented in the 2025 chart [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Charts were provided for China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, etc., covering data from 2020 - 2025 [7]. 3.5 Machine and Pressing Situation - Charts showed the major domestic oil mills' soybean pressing volume in tons and the operating rate from 2020 - 2023 [7].
蛋白数据日报-20260105
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2026-01-05 05:20