20260105申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For copper, the LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting production decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook towards a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, the LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting production continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: The LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 98,800 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of - 240 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $12,461/ton, an LME spot premium of $38.60/ton, an LME inventory of 147,425 tons, and an inventory daily change of - 2,050 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,950 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 220 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $3,021/ton, the LME spot premium is - $24.94/ton, the LME inventory is 511,750 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 23,400 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of 115 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $3,127/ton, an LME spot premium of - $36.25/ton, an LME inventory of 107,625 tons, and an inventory daily change of 1,300 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 130,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,500 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $16,760/ton, the LME spot premium is - $143.68/ton, the LME inventory is 255,162 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 70 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $1,994/ton, the LME spot premium is - $46.54/ton, the LME inventory is 241,925 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 3,350 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 327,680 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,520 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $40,250/ton, the LME spot premium is - $1.00/ton, the LME inventory is 5,420 tons, and the inventory daily change is 90 tons [2]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Copper: The concentrate supply is tight, smelting production shows high growth, power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting production continues to grow, the galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak [2].