铁矿石：短期关注补库需求，价格高位震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - narrative is positive, the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, there is restocking demand for iron ore, and supply is entering the off - season, but the price increase is limited by industrial chain profits. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3] - The strategy is range operation and covered call options [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Macro - aspect - China's monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities, and the short - term domestic macro - narrative is positive. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage, and industrial chain prices maintain a narrow - fluctuation trend. There is a "seesaw" effect between the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and black - series sectors, and short - term market risk - preference changes need attention [1] Price Recovery Reasons for Black - series - The inventory pressure at the finished - product end has been continuously relieved, the industrial chain valuation has rebounded, the spot price of iron ore strongly supports the futures market. Steel mills have officially entered the restocking cycle, and restocking demand may support prices to remain relatively strong [1] Supply - Mainstream mines have a phased end - of - year shipping rush. The weekly shipping volume has increased month - on - month. After the shipping rush, foreign - ore shipping will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic - ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, supply - side support is entering a relatively strong stage [1] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and slightly increased. The profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Overall, domestic steel - mill demand is expected to rise in the short term, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to continue to be released [1] Inventory - The imported inventory of steel mills has increased month - on - month, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has continued to accumulate due to the relatively high arrival volume, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in December [2]