债券月度策略思考：1月：重视全年票息布局-20260105

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of annual coupon layout, indicating that January may serve as a key window for economic activity due to the late timing of the Spring Festival in February [2][6] - The central bank's stance is described as cautious, with a focus on quantity operations and a relatively stable liquidity environment, suggesting limited conditions for significant liquidity withdrawal [3][6] - The supply-demand structure in the bond market is expected to be relatively balanced, with government bond net financing projected at approximately 3.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, peaking in January and March [3][6] Group 2 - The report highlights the impact of new fund rate regulations, which are expected to ease market sentiment and favor coupon strategies, with a potential slight decline in yields anticipated [6][7] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to return to the central bank's focus range of 1.75%-1.85%, while the 30-10 year yield spread is expected to maintain around 40 basis points [7][8] - The report suggests that institutional behavior may create structural opportunities, particularly in the context of the "opening red" effect from banks and insurance companies [4][6]