宏观经济专题：“两重”“两新”提前批已下达

Economic Growth - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated approximately CNY 295 billion for the 2026 "Two Heavy" projects and central budget investment plans, with CNY 220 billion specifically for infrastructure projects[2][9]. - The central budget investment focuses on public sectors, allocating over CNY 75 billion for 673 projects in urban renewal, water conservancy, ecological protection, and pollution control[9]. Infrastructure and Industry Policies - A national venture capital guidance fund has been established with a government contribution of CNY 100 billion, aiming to mobilize a total fund size of CNY 1 trillion, focusing on sectors like integrated circuits and quantum technology[3][10]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to curb unfair competition in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing compliance and fair pricing practices[3][10]. Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance has committed to a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026, emphasizing the need to boost domestic demand and increase investment in key areas such as new productivity and comprehensive human development[4][14]. Real Estate Policy - Recent adjustments in real estate policies include easing purchase conditions for non-local families in Beijing and implementing a new tax rate for second-hand home transactions, reducing the capital gains tax from 5% to 3% for properties held less than two years[4][16]. Consumer Policy - A total of CNY 625 billion has been allocated for a nationwide replacement and upgrade subsidy program for consumer goods, with adjustments to the types of products eligible for subsidies[4][20]. Financial Regulation - The completion of the third phase of public fund fee reform is expected to reduce overall fees by approximately 20%, saving investors around CNY 51 billion annually[4][22]. Trade Policy - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. imposition of Section 301 tariffs on semiconductor products, emphasizing the need to protect national interests[4][23]. Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions reveal significant divisions regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for maintaining rates post-cut while others support further reductions if inflation decreases[4][25]. Risk Warning - There is a risk of continued divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations[4][31].