Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is consolidation. Be cautious about short - selling. Focus on US soybean export data, the January USDA report, and South American weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal shows short - term consolidation. Before the improvement of China - Canada relations, pay attention to short - term long opportunities at low prices. Focus on the January USDA report, Australian seed crushing and import policies, and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][6]. - Palm oil is expected to stop falling and rebound. Consider the impact of the Venezuela event on crude oil prices. Pay attention to long opportunities when it stabilizes at a low level [1][8]. - Soybean oil is expected to stop falling and rebound. The domestic supply environment has improved slightly, but still pay attention to US soybean export data and the performance of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to stop falling and rebound. Pay attention to short - term long opportunities when it stabilizes at a low level. Focus on Australian seed import policies and the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1]. - Cotton is expected to be volatile and strong. Pay attention to the callback and long - entry opportunities. Be vigilant about the suppression of the disk by the narrowing of spinning mill profits and the inflow of external supplies [1][12]. - Red dates are expected to have a short - term rebound. In the context of high inventory and loose supply - demand, maintain a bearish attitude in the long - term, but pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities [1][14]. - Hogs are expected to have a short - term rebound. The 01 contract has limited room for further decline; the 03 contract can consider short - selling after the rebound; the 09 and 11 contracts are recommended to wait and see [1][15]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of December 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 825100 tons, a decrease of 40500 tons from last week and an increase of 50420 tons compared with last year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 654440 tons, a decrease of 67920 tons from last week, a decrease of 9.40%, and an increase of 64440 tons compared with last year, an increase of 10.92%. The soybean meal inventory was 116760 tons, an increase of 3050 tons from last week, an increase of 2.68%, and an increase of 46440 tons compared with last year, an increase of 66.04%. The physical inventory of soybean meal in 50 feed enterprises was 9.45 days, an increase of 0.22 days from the previous period and an increase of 1.01 days compared with the same period last year [3]. - The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 2749 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan or 1.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3172.29 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 26, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week; unexecuted contracts were 0 tons, unchanged from last week [6]. - The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan or 1.58% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2526.32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.42 yuan or 1.11% from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - As of December 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 734100 tons, an increase of 34100 tons from last week, an increase of 4.87%, and an increase of 205700 tons compared with 528400 tons last year, an increase of 38.93% [8]. - The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.85% from the previous day. The national average price was 8653 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day [7]. Cotton - Internationally, the US has inspected 2.4251 million tons of new cotton, with an inspection progress of about 78%. India's new cotton daily listing volume is 43000 tons, and the CCI has purchased 680000 tons of new cotton in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, and the 2026 new cotton planting progress is 25.1% [10]. - Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 6.5 million tons, and the total national output is expected to be 7.68 million tons. The new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14600 - 15200 yuan/ton. The new cotton sales progress is still fast. In November, the imported cotton resource was 300000 tons. The national commercial inventory rose to 5.165 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory rose to 4.7014 million tons [11]. - The futures price of the main contract of cotton (CF2605) was 14585 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day [9]. Red Dates - In terms of supply, the acquisition in the production area is over, and the market supply has increased. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 15649 tons, a decrease of 249 tons from the previous week and 4308 tons higher than the same period [14]. - The futures price of the main contract of red dates (CJ2605) was 8965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan or 0.61% from the previous day [13]. Hogs - In the short - term, the January slaughter plan of sample enterprises has decreased, and the supply pressure in January has weakened, but there is still pressure in February. The entry of second - fattening hogs has increased, which has postponed the supply - side pressure to January and February [15]. - The futures price of the main contract of hogs (lh2603) was 11795 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 12440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan or 2.66% from the previous day [15].
中辉农产品观点-20260105
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2026-01-05 05:40