碳酸锂：供需持续改善，产业博弈加剧，盘面上行过速

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate is continuously improving, but industrial games are intensifying, and the market has risen too rapidly [1] - In the short - term (within 1 month), due to the continuous improvement of supply - demand and the stimulation of rising sentiment, the price center will continue to rise, and it is difficult to find short - selling opportunities. In the medium - term (within 3 months), as the price continues to rise and some mica mines may resume production at the end of the first quarter, appropriate short - selling at high prices can be considered [85] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review and Logic Sorting - Price Trends: In August 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices bottomed out and rebounded with a daily limit of 8%, reaching 81,000 yuan/ton. In September, prices fluctuated weakly, and in October, they continued to rise. In November, prices exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton, and in December, they exceeded 110,000 yuan/ton in the first and middle of the month, then fluctuated sharply [7] - Key Influencing Factors: Supply - side factors include the shutdown of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine, which is expected to affect the monthly supply of about 7,000 - 8,000 tons, and the "Sword Action" in Jiangxi Province. Demand - side factors include strong downstream demand in the power battery and energy storage markets. Exchange regulatory measures include adjustments to trading fees, price limits, and trading margins [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore has rebounded, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has fluctuated. The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows a tight balance in some months. The shutdown of key mines and policy restrictions have affected supply, and the growth of new supply is limited [9][12] - Supply - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have shown certain trends. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has also fluctuated, with shortages in some months [15][24] - Supply - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also shows different situations in different months [27][29] - Lithium Compound Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have been affected by factors such as raw material prices and processing costs [32] - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, monthly and weekly inventory, has shown different trends [39] - Demand - Lithium Battery: The price, production, and sales of lithium batteries have changed. The demand for energy storage batteries is strong, while the growth of power batteries has slowed down [45] - Demand - Ternary Precursor: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [51][54] - Demand - Ternary Material: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also shown different situations [57] - Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [61][64] - Demand - New Energy Vehicle: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed, and the inventory of dealers has also been monitored [69] 3.3 Futures Market Performance - The price, trading volume, and moving averages of the LC futures main contract have shown certain trends [76] 3.4 Summary and Operation Suggestions - Supply - Side: There is a tight balance with continuous disturbances, including mine shutdowns, policy restrictions, and limited new supply [81] - Demand - Side: There is a structural differentiation, with strong energy storage demand and a slowdown in power demand [82] - Cost - Side: There is strong rigid support, including rising ore prices and a steep cost curve [84] - Operation Strategy: In the short - term, it is difficult to find short - selling opportunities, while in the medium - term, short - selling at high prices can be considered when mines resume production [85] - Key Monitoring Indicators: The resumption progress of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo project and energy storage order situation [86]