镍、不锈钢月度策略报告-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news indicates that the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 may drop significantly compared to 2025, and the Indonesian government plans to revise the mineral benchmark price calculation formula for nickel commodities. In addition, Vale Indonesia has suspended nickel ore mining due to the unapproved production plan. Fundamentally, the domestic trade price and premium of nickel ore are basically stable. The weekly nickel - iron transaction price has increased, and the contraction of stainless - steel supply and the strengthening of prices have accelerated inventory depletion. The raw material price is stronger than the finished product, the theoretical profit of nickel sulfate has turned negative, the prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium have all strengthened, the demand has weakened, and the terminal is facing cost pressure. Influenced by the news, the stock and commodity markets resonate, and the nickel price strengthens, but the actual implementation situation is unknown, so market sentiment should be monitored [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - In the month, the price of Shanghai Nickel increased by 12.6%, and the price of LME Nickel increased by 12.5%. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the prices of products in other links of the industrial chain all strengthened [5]. 3.2 Base Price Difference, Spread & Import Profit and Loss - Relevant charts such as the seasonal chart of Shanghai Nickel basis, the price difference between the active and continuous 3 - month contracts of Shanghai Nickel, and the Shanghai - London ratio are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][7]. 3.3 Inventory - During the week, the LME inventory decreased by 414 tons to 255,282 tons; the Shanghai Nickel inventory decreased by 132 tons to 37,666 tons, the social inventory increased by 556 tons to 58,920 tons, and the bonded - area inventory remained at 2,200 tons [5][13]. 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Nickel Ore - The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25.5 per wet ton, and the premium of 1.5% nickel ore from the Philippines increased by $1 per wet ton to $9.0 per wet ton [5][19]. 3.4.2 Refined Nickel - In January 2026, the production of refined nickel is expected to increase by 35.8% month - on - month to 37,200 tons [5][21]. 3.4.3 Ferronickel - In January 2026, the domestic ferronickel production decreased by 1% month - on - month to 21,000 nickel tons; the tender/transaction price increased, and a steel mill in South China inquired about high - nickel ferronickel at 910 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) [5][23]. 3.4.4 Intermediate Products - The spot average prices of MHP and nickel matte increased, and the trading activity increased [5][26]. 3.4.5 Nickel Sulfate - The cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the immediate profit of nickel sulfate was in the red [5][31]. 3.4.6 Scrap Stainless Steel - Relevant charts about the usage and proportion of 300 - series and 200 - series scrap stainless - steel enterprises in China are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [38][39]. 3.4.7 Primary Nickel - Relevant charts about domestic primary nickel production and estimated net imports of primary nickel are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [41][42]. 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 New Energy - In January 2026, the production of ternary precursors is expected to decrease by 2% month - on - month to 83,260 tons; the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh. The Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will have a good start in January 2026, and new - energy vehicles are expected to have a slight increase of 5% in the first quarter, with a 36% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][47][56]. 3.5.2 Stainless Steel - Most stainless - steel prices increased in the month. The total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream domestic markets was 977,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%, among which the 300 - series decreased by 8,500 tons to 620,000 tons. The production schedule in January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% and a year - on - year increase of 16.27%. Among them, the 200 - series was 998,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% and a year - on - year increase of 29.6%; the 300 - series was 1.7193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 9.78%; the 400 - series was 609,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.03% and a year - on - year increase of 16.06%. The theoretical profit was repaired in the month [5][4][77]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Relevant charts about the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [93][94][96]. 3.7 Options - Relevant charts such as historical volatility and historical volatility cone are presented, as well as the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest related to the closing price of Shanghai Nickel, but no specific data analysis is provided [97][98][103].