硅策略月报-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In January, the main production center of industrial silicon will continue to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection control, it is difficult to offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon will have limited - production reduction, silicone will have group - reduction, and aluminum alloy will have environmental - protection reduction. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and it is advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds. [4] - Although the photovoltaic industry chain has seen price increases driven by battery cells recently, due to the transmission blockage in the component segment, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream industries will further expand the scale of production reduction. [4] - In January, with industry self - discipline and the joint production reduction of silicon materials, polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected reduction in supply, which will provide strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's implementation of risk - control position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction by silicon material factories, downstream receiving sentiment, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Price - In December, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 31st, the main contract closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.96%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 57,920 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 2.65%. [5] 3.2 Spot Price - All industrial silicon spot prices decreased. The price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton. Polysilicon P - type remained stable at 44,000 yuan/ton, and N - type increased by 800 yuan/ton to 51,800 yuan/ton. [5] 3.3 Spread - In December, the spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products narrowed, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 narrowed. The industrial silicon spot discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot discount narrowed to 4,670 yuan/ton. [5][17] 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in December will be 348,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The number of monthly open furnaces decreased by 14 to 243, and the furnace - opening rate decreased by 1.76% to 0.5%. [4][5] 3.5 Demand - In December, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.4 tons to 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The DMC production decreased by 13,200 tons to 196,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. [4][5] 3.6 Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in December increased by 17,200 tons to 50,000 tons, and the polysilicon inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 121,000 tons. In terms of social inventory, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in December increased by 7,750 tons to 456,000 tons, including a 2,750 - ton increase in factory inventory to 266,000 tons; Huangpu Port's inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 58,000 tons, Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 80,000 tons, and Kunming Port's inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 52,000 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 2.62 tons to 30.8 tons. [4][5]