2026年1月PX、PTA、MEG策略报告-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side of PX, PTA, and MEG has more disturbances, and polyester prices fluctuate following the cost. The game between the downward feedback from downstream and the expected improvement remains the focus of market contradictions. For PX, beware of the real - world situation dragging it down; for PTA, it is expected to decline; for MEG, it is expected to fluctuate after a rebound [2][155]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Fluctuations, Geopolitical Factors Affect Crude Oil Price - Futures Price: From November 28, 2025, to December 30, 2025, the PTA closing price increased from 4700 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.4%; the MEG closing price decreased from 3885 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0%; the PX closing price increased from 6830 yuan/ton to 7316 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.1% [6]. - Basis and Spread: The PTA, MEG, and PX basis and spreads have changed to varying degrees. For example, the PTA basis decreased from - 37 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decline of 24.3% [15]. - Price Differences: The TA - EG spread widened significantly, with a change value of 482 yuan/ton and a rise of 59.1%. The TA - PX * 0.656 spread also increased, with a change value of 97 yuan/ton and a rise of 44.2%. There were also changes in the price differences between raw materials such as PX - crude oil, PX - MX, etc. [18][22]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Maintenance - PX: As of December 26, 2025, the Asian PX operating rate was 79.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating rate was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. A 70 - ton PX device in the Northeast is restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [36]. - PTA: As of December 26, 2025, the PTA operating rate was 72.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. Multiple PTA devices have restarted, such as the 55 - ton PTA device of FCFC in Taiwan and the 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Zhongtai Petrochemical [38]. - MEG: As of December 26, 2025, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.32% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%), and the operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 77.28% (a month - on - month increase of 4.52%). Multiple MEG devices in Taiwan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have planned maintenance [52]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: India's BIS Certification Cancelled - PX: In November 2025, the total import volume of PX in mainland China was about 817,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [60]. - PTA: In November 2025, the PTA import volume was 300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 89.94%; the export volume was 358,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.93%. The cumulative export volume from January to November 2025 was 3.4553 million tons, close to the full - year level in 2023 [65]. - MEG: In November 2025, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 6.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [68]. - Polyester: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.2948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 96,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons [73]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished - Product Inventory Reduction - PTA: The total PTA inventory is at the bottom. - MEG: On December 29, 2025, the inventory of MEG in some main ports in East China was about 730,000 tons [85]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - Domestic Polyester Device Changes: As of December 31, 2025, the total planned reduction of three major polyester filament factories was about 2.819 million tons. Multiple devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance, and some devices have restarted [87]. - Domestic Polyester - Related Data: The operating rates of polyester, texturing machines, looms, etc. have decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory days and cash flows of some products have also changed [88]. - Terminal Demand: Terminal demand has declined, such as the decline in textile and clothing exports. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 1.9%, and in November, it decreased by 5.1% [105]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - PTA: As of December 30, 2025, the total PTA position was 1,890,052 lots, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [120]. - MEG: As of December 30, 2025, the total MEG position was 341,247 lots, showing a month - on - month decrease and a year - on - year slight decrease [120]. - PX: As of December 30, 2025, the total PX position was 458,083 lots, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [120].