2025年债券行情回顾：收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the bond market showed a volatile trend. The bond yield increased overall at the beginning of the year, then decreased in the second quarter, rose again in the third quarter, and fluctuated at a high level in the fourth quarter. The credit bond had a similar trend to the treasury bond, with the yield rising first, then falling, and then fluctuating higher. The credit spread first narrowed and then widened. The default risk continued to decline, and the default issuers were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds and private enterprises. The risk of a downward adjustment in the implicit rating of the ChinaBond market increased, and the recovery rate of default bonds remained low [9][35][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation Curve: Yield Widely Fluctuated and Rose - By December 31, 2025, the yields of 1 - year treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds changed by 25BP, 17BP, and 27BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 15BP, 8BP, 9BP, and - 41BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 4BP, 12BP, 11BP, and 61BP respectively. Overall, the yields of various maturities generally increased, the credit spreads of major maturities and ratings of credit bonds narrowed, and the 10 - 1 curve flattened [1][10]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Yield Oscillated Higher - January - mid - March: At the beginning of the year, the central bank tightened the money supply, causing short - term yields to rise rapidly and long - term yields to remain stable. After the Two Sessions in March, the market adjusted its expectations for monetary policy, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90% [12][13]. - Late March - April: The money supply loosened, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield declined rapidly and oscillated in the range of 1.63% - 1.67% [16]. - May - June: The central bank implemented policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The long - end interest - rate bond yield fluctuated slightly upward in May and downward in June [16]. - July - September: The "anti - involution" policy increased inflation expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the bond market was suppressed. The bond yield oscillated upward, showing a "bear steep" pattern [16]. - October - December: The economic data in the fourth quarter was weak. The central bank restarted treasury bond trading, but the scale was small. The equity market remained strong, and the bond yield oscillated [16]. 3.3 Credit Spread: Each Grade of Credit Spread First Narrowed and Then Widened - January - mid - March: The credit spread was compressed passively at the beginning of the month, widened briefly before the Two Sessions, and then narrowed rapidly again after the Two Sessions [17]. - Late March - April: The bond market recovered, and the credit spread widened passively [17]. - May: The credit spread narrowed to the lowest point of the year due to policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [17]. - June - early July: The credit spread first widened and then narrowed [17]. - Mid - July - September: The bond market declined, and the credit spread widened [17]. - October - November: The credit spread narrowed due to the weakening of the interest - rate bond and the moderate loosening of the money supply [18]. - December: The bond market sentiment was weak, and the credit spread widened [19]. 3.4 Risk of a Downward Adjustment in the Implicit Rating of the ChinaBond Market Increased - In 2025, the amount of credit bonds with a downward adjustment in the implicit rating of the ChinaBond market was 865.5 billion, a significant year - on - year increase. The total amount of bonds with an upward adjustment was 422.2 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upward and downward adjustment samples decreased compared with the same period last year [25]. 3.5 Default Risk Generally Decreased, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In 2025, there were 9 new first - time default issuers. According to the broad default standard, the default amount was 17.5 billion, and the default rate was 0.04%. The annualized default rate decreased significantly compared with previous years. The default issuers were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds and private enterprises. The default rate of real - estate bonds was 0.6%, and the default scale and annualized default rate decreased significantly compared with last year. The default rate of private enterprises was 0.8%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline [27][30]. 3.6 Recovery Rate Remained Low - In 2025, the default bonds recovered a principal of 2.453 billion. From 2014 to the present, the default bonds have paid a total principal of 129.4 billion, and the payment rate of overdue principal was 12.4% [32].