预期支撑近弱远强：尿素2026年1月报-20260105

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Monthly Report for January 2026: Expectation Support, Near - Weak and Far - Strong [1] - Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the domestic urea market price is expected to show a trend of first rising slightly in January, then falling slightly in February, and strengthening in March. Supply will be abundant in the first quarter, while demand will first decline and then increase [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Spot and Futures Price Review - In December, urea prices were weak first and then strong. Futures prices drove the strengthening of the main basis, and then the futures prices recovered upward, causing the main basis to weaken. Supply - side开工负荷 decreased slightly, and overall spot supply decreased month - on - month. Demand from compound fertilizers and off - season storage procurement, as well as agricultural retail replenishment, led to good sales for manufacturers, inventory reduction, and an upward shift in the price negotiation center [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - Capacity: In 2025, nearly 600 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation, including a 160 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Zhongneng Lvyuan in November. In the first quarter of 2026, a 50 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Aofu is planned to be put into operation [7][10]. -开工率: At the end of December, the urea开工率 was 81.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.77 percentage points. The natural - gas - based urea开工率 was 56.27%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 13.72 percentage points [7][10]. - Production: At the end of December, the daily urea production was 190,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons. The estimated total urea production from January to December 2025 was 72.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7 billion tons, with an annual supply growth rate of 11.9% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The anthracite market had general trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 29, the market price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was between 850 - 920 yuan/ton [15]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the upward adjustment of urea prices, the urea production profit recovered slightly [15]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption: From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was about 61.53 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.31%. In December 2025, the urea production - sales ratio decreased slightly, from 99.4% at the beginning of the month to 98.4% recently [18]. - Agricultural demand: In 2025, the national summer grain sown area was 399 million mu, a decrease of 520,000 mu compared with the previous year, a decrease of 0.1%. Different regions had different trends in sown area. The agricultural use of urea has seasonal peaks, such as the spring wheat green - turning fertilizer period, the top - dressing period for corn and rice, and the wheat base - fertilizer period [21][22]. 3.5 Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - Compound fertilizer: In December, the estimated operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity was 42.22%, a month - on - month increase of 4.63 percentage points, with a narrowing increase rate. In January, the operating rate may fluctuate slightly, following the production - based - on - sales model. The prices of urea and ammonium chloride increased, sulfur prices decreased, phosphate fertilizer prices were regulated, potassium fertilizer prices increased slightly, and compound fertilizer transaction prices increased. The cost advantage of the N element was obvious, the cost of the P element increased significantly, and the cost of the K element was stable in the short term [24][27]. - Industrial demand: The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores first increased and then decreased, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved limitedly, with some support from exports. The average operating rate of Chinese melamine enterprises first increased and then decreased. It is expected to rise to over 60% in January [32]. 3.6 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to November 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 42.86 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea export volume was 4.62 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.36 billion tons. The export volume of ammonium sulfate was 19.37 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.2%. The export volume of other binary fertilizers containing nitrogen and phosphorus was 4.05 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 190.2%. The export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizers was 2.08 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea port collection was 298,000 tons, and no export quota had been announced yet, so the port collection quantity was limited [35]. 3.7 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - Enterprise inventory: The urea enterprise inventory was at 883,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 495,000 tons. The overall agricultural reserve work advanced, and some industrial rigid demands made appropriate stockpiles, improving the market liquidity. - Registered warehouse receipts: The current registered urea warehouse receipts were 12,381, totaling 24.762 tons, at a historical high [36]. 3.8 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Only one urea production device is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter. With the expected resumption of gas - based devices in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia, the daily production is expected to remain at a high level, and the supply will be abundant [38]. - Demand: Agricultural demand will increase as the spring plowing approaches. Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer market may fluctuate at a high level in the next three months, with different trends in different months. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. Export demand is waiting for the announcement of new quotas. Overall, the downstream demand for urea will first decrease and then increase [38]. - Market price trend: In January 2026, the domestic urea market price may rise slightly; in February, it is expected to decline slightly; in March, it will be stronger [38]. - Key points of concern: Urea capacity release, urea device production reduction and maintenance, compound fertilizer operation, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [38].