有色金属基础周报：地缘冲击加剧全球不确定性，有色金属走势整体偏强运行-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have entered a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage dominated by sentiment in the short term. Although there is medium - to - long - term support from the supply side, current prices may be overvalued, and there is a risk of price correction. However, due to geopolitical impacts, copper prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuating between 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by fundamental expectations and capital behavior. In the short term, they may still be strong, but the upward pressure is large, and the upward space should be viewed with caution. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and aluminum alloy may be relatively weaker than aluminum prices [3][4]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. Supply is slightly stronger, but demand at the end of the year is weak, and the fundamental support is limited [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations within the range of 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton are recommended [3]. - Nickel prices have rebounded strongly, but the nickel industry remains in a state of over - supply, which suppresses the upward space of nickel prices. Both nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed [4]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit. Alumina's weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe. The price of polysilicon has adjusted after breaking through the upper limit. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - China: In December 2025, China's five - year and one - year loan market prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively. From January to November, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year [13][15][16]. - US: In the third quarter of 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized quarterly growth rate was 2.9%. As of December 6, 2025, the average weekly new employment in the US private sector was 11,500 [13][19][20]. 3.2 Geopolitical Events - On January 3, 2026, the US launched an air strike on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and stated that it would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition. The situation in Venezuela may have an impact on the global market, especially on gold and crude oil prices [24][25][27]. 3.3 Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - Price Trend: The Shanghai copper main contract reached a historical high of over 100,000 yuan/ton before the holiday, then fell back. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of copper concentrates is in a tight situation, and there is an expected increase in demand from AI infrastructure and power grid upgrades in the long term. However, at present, downstream demand is weak, and social inventories have increased significantly [3]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - Price Trend: The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows an overall upward trend in oscillation. In the short term, it may still be strong, but the upward space is limited [3][54]. - Supply and Demand: Alumina is in a state of over - supply, and the destocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is difficult. New domestic production capacity is still being put into operation, while demand from photovoltaic installations and the automotive industry has decreased [3][4]. 3.3.3 Zinc - Price Trend: Zinc prices oscillated in the previous week and are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. The price range is expected to be between 22,800 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand: The processing fee of zinc concentrates has been declining, squeezing the profits of smelters. Demand has weakened due to environmental protection warnings in the north, and downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement [3]. 3.3.4 Lead - Price Trend: The Shanghai lead main contract showed an oscillatory rebound trend, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand: LME and COMEX lead inventories decreased, while SHFE lead inventories increased slightly. The overall lead price is stable, and the replacement consumption is supported by the "trade - in" policy [3]. 3.3.5 Nickel - Price Trend: Nickel prices rebounded strongly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel all showed an upward trend [4]. - Supply and Demand: The Indonesian nickel mining quota is expected to be reduced, and the rainy season may affect nickel ore shipments. The refined nickel market is in a state of over - supply, while the demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3.6 Tin - Price Trend: Tin prices showed an oscillatory decline, but the upward trend in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation [4]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. However, the demand from consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries is weak [4]. 3.3.7 Industrial Silicon, Alumina, Stainless Steel, and Lithium Carbonate - Industrial Silicon: The price has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit [4]. - Alumina: The weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe [3][4]. - Stainless Steel: The price has rebounded strongly, but it is expected to maintain an oscillation after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is expected to continue to oscillate. Supply and demand are both changing, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [4].