12月PMI数据点评：PMI回升持续性仍需观察

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the December PMI data needs further observation. Although the manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded, there are still potential risks, and policy support is required. The service industry has a slight rebound but remains in the contraction range, while the construction industry has significantly improved due to the release of the effects of stable - growth policies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - Overall PMI: In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after eight months. Policy transmission lag, Spring Festival misalignment, and industry structure optimization are the main reasons for the unexpected rebound, but there are still problems such as the low - prosperity of small enterprises [3]. - Production: The December production index was 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous value, indicating strong production resilience. The main reason for the sharp rebound is the Spring Festival misalignment, as the Spring Festival in 2026 is later than usual [4]. - Demand: The new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a significant overall improvement in demand. The improvement in domestic demand is the core, and external demand maintains resilience. The increase in indices such as procurement volume, on - hand orders, finished - product inventory, and raw - material inventory supports the short - term recovery of demand [5]. - Prices: The raw material purchase price was 53.1%, still in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index rose 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%. The "low - selling - price, high - cost" pattern restricts corporate profit repair and investment expansion willingness [6]. - Enterprise Structure: Large - and medium - sized enterprises and small enterprises, as well as high - tech and consumer goods industries and traditional industries, show significant differentiation. Large - scale enterprises support the overall improvement of the manufacturing industry, while small enterprises have a low prosperity level. High - tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries perform well, while some traditional industries face demand contraction pressure [8]. Service Industry - In December, the service industry prosperity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range for two consecutive months. The demand has increased, and the expectation has improved, but the price is weak. The lack of service repair power mainly comes from the transformation of traditional industries and the continuous adjustment of the real - estate market [9]. Construction Industry - The construction industry prosperity index increased significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, mainly due to the lag effect of previous stable - growth policies, the relatively high temperature in southern provinces, and enterprises seizing the construction progress near the two festivals. Structurally, demand has improved at a low level, input prices are expanding, business activity expectations are optimistic, while sales prices and the employee index are weak [10].