年初市场科技主线能否延续？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The technology sector was the clear mainline in the A - share market in 2025, but its momentum slowed down in the fourth quarter. The technology index had a 43.57% annual increase, significantly outperforming other style indices such as the CSI 300 (17.66%). However, there were signs of weakening in the fourth quarter [4]. - The technology mainline still has some continuity. The market risk - preference is high, the valuation is not in a frenzy, the strong performance of the US AI sector supports A - share counterparts, and the expected global liquidity easing is favorable for high - valuation technology assets [4]. - The report is cautiously optimistic about the technology mainline and suggests focusing on sub - sectors with strong logic. There are opportunities to lay out the technology market on dips in January due to potential short - term tightening of the capital market. The robot and sports sectors, as well as the non - bank financial sector, are recommended for investment, while high - congestion sectors like commercial aerospace should be treated with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Most major market indices rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index having the largest increase of 0.13%. Among the large - scale industry indices, the Telecommunication Services Index and the Energy Index performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 2.13% and 1.54% respectively, while the Utilities Index and the Healthcare Index were weaker, with decreases of 2.64% and 1.99% respectively [8][16]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 12 industries rose. The Petroleum & Petrochemical, National Defense & Military Industry, and Media industries had relatively large increases of 3.92%, 3.05%, and 2.13% respectively, while the Utilities, Food & Beverage, and Power Equipment industries had relatively large decreases of 2.72%, 2.26%, and 2.18% respectively [19]. - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 2.128335 trillion yuan, up from the previous week and at a relatively high historical level (90.80% in the three - year historical quantile) [22]. Valuation Tracking - As of December 31, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.32, up 0.20 from the previous week and at the 94.60% quantile in the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 11 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) recovered [26]. Investment Suggestions - In the context of the index's high - level oscillation and the weakening of the profit - making effect, the allocation strategy should emphasize direction selection and rhythm control. - The robot sector has a clear long - term industrial narrative and event - catalyzing expectations, meeting the allocation characteristics of "low congestion, continuous capital inflow, and high elasticity", and is considered the core direction for early deployment in the spring market [7]. - The sports sector may be the theme direction with the greatest elasticity in the consumer field before the Spring Festival [7]. - The non - bank financial sector of securities firms has certain allocation value at the current stage [7].