即时点评：对进口牛肉实施保障措施落地，利好国内牛价

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the domestic beef industry due to the implementation of import beef quota and additional tariffs, recommending a focus on YouRan Agriculture (9858.HK) [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting January 1, 2026, import beef will be subject to safeguard measures, including country-specific quotas and an additional 55% tariff on quantities exceeding the quota, with a three-year implementation period [3]. - The quota for imported beef in 2026 is set at 2.688 million tons, with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Australia having specific allocations [3]. - In 2024, China's beef imports were 2.87 million tons, accounting for over 30% of domestic production, indicating a high reliance on imported beef [4]. Summary by Sections Import Quota and Tariffs - The safeguard measures are a response to the significant increase in imported beef, which has caused serious damage to the domestic industry [3]. - The quota for 2026 includes 1.106 million tons from Brazil, 0.511 million tons from Argentina, 0.324 million tons from Uruguay, and 0.205 million tons from Australia [3]. Domestic Beef Market Impact - The high proportion of imported beef and the new quota system are expected to benefit domestic beef prices by alleviating supply pressure [4]. - As of December 26, 2025, domestic beef prices were 53.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [4]. - The ongoing reduction of breeding cattle since 2025 is tightening supply, further supporting price increases [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the import quota system will reduce supply pressure and, combined with the ongoing reduction of breeding cattle, is likely to lead to continued price increases, positively impacting the profits of livestock companies [5].