油脂周报（P&Y&OI)：原油端扰动与基本面压力的博弈-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is neutral - bullish, with attention on weather. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, and dry conditions in South America may affect the new - season soybean yield. Domestic soybean oil mills have normal operations with sufficient supply for now, while there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed waiting for Australian imports [3]. - Demand is under observation. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is close to B40 but fails to reach B50, indicating implementation difficulties. The US biodiesel RVO has a significant impact on international oil and fat supply - demand, but its release time is uncertain. Domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - In terms of inventory, the outlook for palm oil is to wait and see, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in short supply. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is high, with the year - end carry - over inventory expected to reach 3 million tons, pressuring the market. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in Q1. Rapeseed oil inventory is also declining due to supply shortages [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors are bullish. The conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday has disrupted the crude oil market, and the market may price vegetable oils from the biodiesel end, leading to price rebounds. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for release in Q1, which may cause major impacts. The Indonesian B50 story has not yet entered the speculation stage [3]. - Investment view: Wait for opportunities to go long on palm oil and go short on rapeseed oil. The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production cuts, B50 policy, and US biodiesel. Rapeseed oil has short - term price increases due to trader pick - ups and import restrictions, but will face pressure from global rapeseed harvests after trade flows are restored. Consider short - selling if oil prices gap up due to geopolitical events [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral - bullish, affected by weather in Southeast Asia and South America, and domestic rapeseed supply situation [3]. - Demand: Under observation, influenced by Indonesia's biodiesel quota and the uncertain release time of US biodiesel RVO [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil - wait and see; soybean oil and rapeseed oil - tight [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy: Bullish, due to crude oil market disruptions and upcoming US biodiesel policy [3]. - Investment view: Long palm oil later, short rapeseed oil [3]. - Trading strategy: Short rapeseed oil unilaterally, lightly allocate P5 - 9 positive spreads, and there is no option strategy mentioned [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the spreads of different contracts such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided, which affects palm oil production [20][24][30]. - Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [33][37][38]. - Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [39][44]. - Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is provided [45][50]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Data on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, inventory, import cost, and import profit are presented [51][53][55]. - Weather and Soybean Production Situation: Information on the future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina is provided [63][66][72]. - US and Brazilian Export Situations: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume and CNF premium are presented [77][81]. - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [91]. - Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed from different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are presented [92][94]. - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [99][103].