长江期货粕类油脂月报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soybean Meal - The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness continues under the expectation of inventory reduction. The 03 contract is strong but with limited upside, while the 05 contract is weak but with strengthened bottom support due to geopolitical risks [5][8]. 2.2. Oils and Fats - In the short term, the rebound of oils and fats is limited. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be more abundant [75][216][217]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the East China spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton monthly; the M2605 contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton monthly; the basis was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The US soybean price was weak, while the domestic spot price was strong due to customs clearance delays and inventory reduction expectations [8][10]. 3.1.2. Supply End - The global soybean supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly. The 2025/26 global soybean output is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. The supply will first tighten and then loosen [8]. 3.1.3. Demand End - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. As of December 26, the national soybean inventory was 6.5444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 605,500 tons (8.41%); the soybean meal inventory of full - sample oil mills was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,100 tons (1.35%) [8]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September it is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bushel, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand - The global soybean output is expected to be 426 million tons, and the output - consumption difference has shrunk to 690,000 tons [16]. 3.1.6. US Soybean Inventory - Sales Ratio and Export - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio has tightened to 6.74%. As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 386,010 tons to the Chinese mainland, accounting for 44.36% [26]. 3.1.7. Brazilian Export Sales - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT is 38.42%, lower than 41.09% of the same period last year, but the overall sales progress is good due to the large increase in production [27]. 3.1.8. Sowing Progress in South America - As of December 12, the sowing in the central and northern regions of Brazil was completed, and the sowing progress in the southern Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. The sowing progress in Argentina was 75.5% [37]. 3.1.9. South American Weather - Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, which is not conducive to soybean growth, while the precipitation in the main Brazilian producing areas is normal, which is beneficial to soybean growth [43]. 3.1.10. US Soybean Planting Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in 25/26 is 1148 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 1000 cents/bushel. The US soybean price has strong bottom support [45]. 3.1.11. Premium Quotes - The Brazilian premium quotes have stabilized recently. As of February, the Brazilian premium quote was 150H cents/bushel. The crushing profit of imported soybeans was a loss of about - 30 yuan/ton [52]. 3.1.12. Import Cost - Based on the US soybean planting cost of 1000 cents/bushel, the US soybean premium of 230 cents/bushel, the exchange rate of 7.1, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.7, the domestic soybean import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal cost from February to March is 3200 yuan/ton, and the Brazilian cost is 2580 yuan/ton [54]. 3.1.13. Ship - Buying Progress - Driven by the import crushing profit, the domestic ship - buying progress is relatively fast. The procurement progress for the January shipment has reached 100%. After January, the domestic arrival may decrease, which may lead to a phased increase in prices [59]. 3.1.14. Soybean Arrival - The domestic soybean arrival will first decrease and then increase. The 2025 - 2026 first - quarter import volume will decline seasonally, which is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction by CGC will slow down the inventory reduction of soybean meal [61][207]. 3.1.15. Soybean Meal Inventory - The domestic soybean meal inventory reduction is slow. As of December 19, the soybean inventory was 7.22 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 24.86%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.12 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 17.9%) [207]. 3.2. Oils and Fats 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 8584 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract decreased by 178 yuan/ton to 7862 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract decreased by 670 yuan/ton to 9087 yuan/ton. The decline of rapeseed oil was the most significant [77]. 3.2.2. Palm Oil - In the short term, the export of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased, and the production decreased slightly. The ending inventory may increase to over 3 million tons. In the long term, the traditional production - reduction season from January to February 2026 and the pre - Ramadan stocking in India are conducive to inventory reduction [77]. 3.2.3. Soybean Oil - In the short term, the fundamental support is weak. The US soybean export demand is uncertain, and the South American soybean is expected to have a good harvest. However, the current US soybean price is lower than the planting cost, and the US biodiesel policy may limit the downside. In the long term, it will fluctuate widely [77]. 3.2.4. Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, the domestic situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is accelerating reduction. In the long term, the global rapeseed supply is more abundant, and the domestic supply may become more relaxed [77]. 3.2.5. Key Data Tracking: Spreads - The report shows the historical spreads of different oil contracts, such as the 5 - month spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [84][85][86]. 3.2.6. Key Data Tracking: Warehouse Receipts - As of December 31, the registered warehouse receipts of palm oil were 260 lots, a decrease of 92 lots from the end of last month; the registered warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 28,264 lots, an increase of 28,264 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3297 lots, a decrease of 668 lots [91]. 3.2.7. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Malaysia - In November 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3%; the export was 1.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.13%; the inventory was 2.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.04%. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in December [98]. 3.2.8. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Indonesia - In October 2025, the Indonesian palm oil production increased, the export decreased, and the domestic consumption increased. The ending inventory decreased to 2.33 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will remain low in 2025 [104][105]. 3.2.9. Palm Oil Import in India - In November 2025, the Indian soybean oil import decreased by 10.6% to 370,700 tons, the sunflower oil import decreased by 44.49% to 143,000 tons, the palm oil import increased by 6.34% to 630,500 tons, and the total vegetable oil import decreased by 13.3% to 1.1509 million tons. The inventory decreased. There is a possibility of an increase in imports for pre - Ramadan stocking [119]. 3.2.10. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil - The report provides high - frequency export and production data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as price data such as the domestic CPO spot price and the average price of fresh fruit bunches [121][122][123]. 3.2.11. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil (Continued) - It shows the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, palm oil and diesel, and the export tax trend of Indonesian palm oil [127][129][130]. 3.2.12. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: US Soybean - The estimated US soybean output in 25/26 is 115.75 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.77%). The demand has uncertainties, and the ending inventory and inventory - sales ratio are at the median level in the past five years [140]. 3.2.13. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: South American Soybean - The market maintains the expectation of a good harvest in South America. The 2025 - January - to - November Brazilian soybean export was 106 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.44%), and the January - to - October Argentine soybean export was 9.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 126.5%). The total export demand will remain high [149]. 3.2.14. Key Data Tracking of Soybean Oil - The report provides data on the US soybean shipment, net sales, export to China, and the non - commercial net long positions of US soybean and soybean oil [151][153][154]. 3.2.15. Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated global rapeseed output in 25/26 is 92.273 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 7.30%), and the supply is more abundant. The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies, and the supply may change depending on future policies [180][208]. 3.2.16. Cost: Oilseed Crushing Profit and Import Profit - As of December 31, the near - month Brazilian soybean crushing profit decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 65.5 yuan/ton, the US Gulf soybean crushing profit increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 422.56 yuan/ton, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 744 yuan/ton. The import profit of Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil increased [192]. 3.2.17. Domestic Palm Oil - In 2025, the domestic palm oil import decreased due to poor import profit. After December, the supply may decrease, which is conducive to inventory reduction. As of December 19, the inventory was 700,000 tons [198]. 3.2.18. Domestic Soybean Oil - In 2025, the domestic soybean import increased, and the soybean oil consumption decreased slightly. The inventory remained high. The seasonal decrease in import from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction will slow down the process [207]. 3.2.19. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies. The supply may become more relaxed in the future, depending on policies such as the import of Australian rapeseed and Canadian rapeseed [208]. 3.2.20. Driving Summary - In the short term, the oils and fats will fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties [216][217]. 3.2.21. Valuation - The current price of the palm oil 05 contract is at a historical high, while the prices of the soybean oil and rapeseed oil 05 contracts are at a historical low [218].