集运日报：美突袭委内瑞拉，国际局势再度紧张，主力合约偏强震荡，关注二月运价走势-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US raid on Venezuela has led to renewed international tensions, but the expected impact is limited. The US line is facing the biggest blizzard in recent years at the end of the year, and the European line is affected by seasonal route congestion, both showing varying degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have shown signs of resuming voyages in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is considered limited. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, but the premium space caused by weather and congestion is limited. The core is the direction of spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rate conditions in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, a 9.7% increase from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.41 points, a 35.3% increase from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1656.32 points, a 103.4 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, a 10.24% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2188 USD/FEU, a 9.84% increase from the previous period [3]. - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, a 10.40% increase from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1258.31 points, a 9.96% increase from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1743.56 points, a 38.94% increase from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, a 0.6% increase from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, a 0.2% increase from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 792.06 points, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On December 31, the main contract 2602 closed at 1801.3, with a 0.52% increase, a trading volume of 21,500 lots, and an open interest of 24,100 lots, a decrease of 3725 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Indicators - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, with improved business levels. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4]. - The eurozone's December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9, lower than the expected 52.6 and the previous value of 52.8. The services PMI preliminary value was 56.6, lower than the market - expected 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service industry. The eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [3]. - The US December S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 52.9, a six - month low, with an expected value of 54 and a previous value of 54.1. The US December S&P Global Composite PMI value was 53, with an expected value of 53.9 and a previous value of 54.2 [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and wait and see in the short term. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level. Wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].