Bank of China Securities·2026-01-05 06:58Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - New home transaction area has seen a slight month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while the year-on-year decline has narrowed to 21.5% [6] - The transaction area for second-hand homes has turned negative month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9%, although the decline has also narrowed compared to the previous week [6] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 16.2 months, which is a decrease of 1.6 months month-on-month but an increase of 4.3 months year-on-year [6] - The land market has seen a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in price, with a total land transaction area of 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year, while the average floor price has increased by 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [6] - The total issuance of domestic bonds in the real estate sector has decreased significantly, with a total issuance of 1.96 billion yuan, down 68.5% month-on-month and 20.2% year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities is 281.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [17][26] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities is 11,398 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [42][43] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities is 126.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [49][57] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities is 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year [63][64] - The total land transaction price is 111.36 billion yuan, down 14.1% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [68][89] - The average floor price of land is 2,545.5 yuan per square meter, up 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [63][68] 3. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has announced a new policy reducing the value-added tax rate on personal sales of housing from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026 [2][97] - The central bank has indicated a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and improving financial conditions [97]