地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2025 年第 48 期：关注全国财政工作会议四大看点-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The National Fiscal Work Conference held on December 27 - 28, 2025, proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the government bond tool mix, improving the efficiency of transfer payment funds, continuously optimizing the expenditure structure, and strengthening fiscal - financial coordination [7][8]. - The "expansion of domestic demand" remains the top priority among the six key fiscal tasks in 2026, with specific measures to boost consumption, expand effective investment, and accelerate the construction of a unified national market [7][10][11]. - Hainan summarized the achievements of state - owned enterprises' reform and development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" and set goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan", aiming to enhance profitability and play a strategic supporting role [7][15]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review (1) Four Highlights of the National Fiscal Work Conference - More Proactive Fiscal Policy: In 2026, the fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive". It is recommended that the deficit rate be maintained above 4%, with a new special bond quota of 5.1 trillion yuan and a special treasury bond of 1.8 trillion yuan, and the general deficit scale may reach about 15 trillion yuan, an increase of over 1 trillion yuan compared to 2025. The structure of local debt should be optimized, and the proportion of general bonds should be moderately increased [7][9]. - Optimized Expenditure Structure: "Expanding domestic demand" is the top priority. Specific measures include boosting consumption, expanding investment, and building a unified national market. The task of "promoting urban - rural integration and regional linkage" has been upgraded to the third place. There is significant investment space in the people - centered new urbanization, with about 300 million "new citizens" in China having unmet needs, and the investment space in urban renewal during the "15th Five - Year Plan" may exceed 35 trillion yuan [7][11]. - Strengthened Fiscal - Financial Coordination: This is a new proposal. Fiscal and monetary policies need to cooperate. Three dimensions to strengthen coordination are proposed: strengthening the linkage between fiscal subsidies and structural monetary policies, deepening the function of treasury bonds as the core link of macro - control, and improving the assessment and feedback mechanism [12][13]. - Enhanced Local Financial Resources: The focus has shifted from "increasing transfer payments" to "improving transfer payment efficiency". Suggestions include optimizing the structure, improving the direct fiscal fund mechanism, and establishing an incentive - restraint mechanism. In the long run, the fiscal and tax system reform should be deepened [14]. (2) Hainan's State - owned Enterprises Reform and Development - Achievements in the "14th Five - Year Plan": Comprehensive strength has been significantly enhanced, the layout of state - owned assets has been optimized, the reform of state - owned enterprises has been advanced in an orderly manner, and the capital operation ability has been improved. Seven new listed companies have been added, and a "1 + N" mother - child fund matrix has been initially established [15]. - Goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan": Solve problems such as weak main businesses, low ROE, high asset - liability ratios of some enterprises, and insufficient financing from the capital market. Continue to promote the reform of state - owned enterprises, deepen cooperation with central enterprises, and focus on improving profitability [15]. (3) Tracking of "Exiting the Platform" of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 12 urban investment enterprises declared to be market - oriented operating entities or exited the financing platform list, a decrease compared to last week. Most are from the infrastructure investment and financing industry, with 7 from Jiangsu. The main credit ratings are AA and AA +, and there are 7 at the municipal level and 5 at the district - county level [16]. (4) Early Redemption of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 29 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, involving 32 bonds with a total scale of 44.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.76 billion yuan compared to the previous value. Most of the enterprises have an AA credit rating [19]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds (1) Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds decreased. Six local bonds were issued, with a scale of 20.37 billion yuan and a net financing of - 31.74 billion yuan. As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new bonds (excluding small and medium - bank special bonds) reached 53,336.89 billion yuan, completing 102.57% of the annual new quota. The use progress of the 500 - billion - yuan carry - over quota may exceed 90% [7][20]. - In terms of issuance structure, all 6 bonds issued this week were new special bonds. The issuance term is mainly 20 - year, accounting for 59.45%. The weighted average issuance term is 15.14 years, 1.01 years shorter than the previous value. Three provinces issued local bonds this week, with Guangdong having the largest issuance scale of 15.00 billion yuan [20][21]. (2) Urban Investment Bonds - This week, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased, the net financing scale increased, the issuance interest rate decreased, and the issuance spread widened. A total of 92 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 62.515 billion yuan, a 20.29% decrease compared to the previous value, and a net financing of 6.841 billion yuan, an increase of 2.603 billion yuan compared to the previous value. There were no overseas urban investment bonds issued this week [7][23]. - The issuance cost: the overall issuance interest rate is 2.25%, a decrease of 4.97BP compared to the previous value, and the issuance spread is 80.61BP, a widening of 1.07BP compared to the previous value. The issuance term is mainly 5 - year, accounting for 32.61%, and the issuer's main credit rating is AA + [23][24]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - This week, the central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing. After considering other factors, the net withdrawal of funds was 155.2 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates fluctuated, with some rising and some falling [29]. - Local Government Bonds: The trading volume of local government bonds was 385.482 billion yuan, a 14.35% decrease compared to the previous value. Most of the maturity yields decreased, with an average decrease of 3.13BP [29]. - Urban Investment Bonds: The trading volume was 345.019 billion yuan, a 4.17% increase compared to the previous value. The maturity yields mainly decreased, with an average decrease of 1.95BP. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AA + urban investment bonds widened, while that of 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed. There were 11 abnormal transactions of 6 bonds of 5 urban investment entities [30][31]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 77 urban investment enterprises issued announcements on changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and changes in business scope [34].