——2025年公募REITs市场12月报:商业不动产REITs正式试点,迎接高质量发展新阶段-20260105
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-05 08:04
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's REITs market has entered the fast - lane of high - quality development. The official pilot of commercial real - estate REITs was launched in December 2025, and a series of policies were introduced to promote market expansion, improve liquidity, and optimize the registration system [4]. - In December 2025, the REITs market declined with a volume contraction, and concession - based REITs had a deep correction. However, there was an oversold rebound in the second half of the month. The annual return of the CSI REITs Total Return Index was 4.34% [41]. - The offline subscription of China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT was extremely popular in December 2025, with a record - high offline subscription multiple. Meanwhile, Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT broke below its issue price on the first trading day [4][100]. - In January 2026, there are no REITs restricted shares scheduled to be lifted. In the second half of December 2025, 4 new REITs applications were accepted, and Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT updated its response materials [107][109]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commercial Real - estate REITs Officially Piloted, Policy Combinations Implemented - Regulatory Announcements: On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially launched the pilot of commercial real - estate REITs. The official version only slightly modified the product definition compared to the solicitation draft, clarifying the holding path of "public fund - ABS - SPV - underlying assets" [4][7]. - High - Quality Development Policies: These policies include supporting "mixed - asset" REITs, expanding the scope of original equity holders to bank and insurance asset management institutions, promoting market expansion, improving the secondary - market liquidity, and optimizing the REITs application and registration system [4][11][13]. - Exchange Rule Adjustments: The exchanges separately adjusted the relevant REITs systems, including listing separate review requirements for different asset types, allowing "high - price elimination" in offline subscriptions, and clarifying the disclosure requirements for different commercial real - estate sectors [20][24]. - Industry Association Rule Changes: The China Securities Association tightened the access requirements for offline investors and added 10 prohibited behaviors, with penalties upgraded to the offline investors themselves [27][31]. 3.2 Rebound after Oversold in December's Second Half, Concession - Based Assets Under Greater Pressure - Market Index Performance: In December 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index decreased by 2.9% for the month. However, it rebounded by more than 2% after an oversold situation on December 24. The annual return of the index in 2025 was 4.34% [41]. - Asset - Type Performance: In December, all REITs index types except IDC declined. Concession - based assets such as utilities, transportation, and energy had the deepest declines. In 2025, consumer, warehousing logistics, and rental housing REITs had the highest annual returns [47]. - Individual Bond Performance: In December, more than 90% of concession - based individual bonds declined, while the rise - to - fall ratio of industrial park REITs improved [48]. - Liquidity: The average daily turnover rate of REITs in December 2025 was 0.40%, the lowest monthly level of the year. The turnover rate of rental housing REITs decreased the most [54]. - Dividend Yield: As of December 31, 2025, the average dividend yield of equity - based REITs was 4.60% (at the 61% quantile), and that of concession - based REITs was 9.12% (at the 90% quantile). The dividend yield of transportation REITs reached 9.95%, at the 95% historical high [58]. - Valuation and IRR: The P/NAV of equity - based REITs was 1.22X, at the 65% historical quantile, and the P/FFO of concession - based REITs was 12.27X, at the 30% historical quantile. The IRR of both major asset types significantly increased and was around the 40% quantile [70][75]. 3.3 High Offline Popularity of China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT, Deep Break - below of Anbo Logistics on First Day - New Issues in December 2025: China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT conducted offline price inquiries in December 2025, with an issue size of 1.505 billion yuan. Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [80]. - Subscription and Pricing: China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT had a record - high offline subscription multiple of 340 times. It was priced close to the upper limit, with almost no discount. Its expected dividend yield in 2026 was lower than that of comparable REITs [89][92][93]. - Listing Performance: Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT broke below its issue price on the first trading day, with a decline of 10%. After excluding extreme values, the offline subscription return rate for 100 million yuan of funds in REITs from January to December 2025 was 3.42% [100][101]. 3.4 No REITs Restricted Shares to be Lifted in January 2026 - Based on the announcements of Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs in the second half of December 2025, there are no REITs restricted shares scheduled to be lifted in January 2026 [107]. 3.5 Four New Applications Accepted, Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Heating REIT Updates Response Materials - Queueing Projects: In the second half of December 2025, 4 new REITs applications were accepted, and Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT updated its response materials after answering the inquiry letter [109]. - Bidding Information: GF Fund won the bid for the infrastructure REITs project of Southern Xinjiang Energy Group [110].