汽车与汽车零部件：国补政策细则落地，有望改善板块悲观情绪

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance released the 2026 national subsidy policy details on December 30, 2025, adjusting passenger car subsidies from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, optimizing subsidy standards [2][5] - The current automotive sector has shifted from being solely influenced by domestic demand to being driven by overseas markets, high-end products, and smart technologies, with a focus on identifying alpha opportunities centered around AI [2][8] Summary by Sections Subsidy Policy Changes - The subsidy for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles is 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan), and for 2.0-liter and below fuel passenger vehicles, it is 10% (up to 15,000 yuan). For trade-ins, the subsidy is 8% for new energy vehicles (up to 15,000 yuan) and 6% for fuel vehicles (up to 13,000 yuan) [5][6] Inventory and Demand Outlook - Observations indicate that the end of 2025 saw an increase in channel inventory, with manufacturers beginning to clear stock in late November. If retail sales exceed expectations in January, inventory may reach a bottom sooner, alleviating pressure [6] Market Structure and Beneficiaries - The mid-to-high-end passenger vehicle segment is expected to benefit more from the new subsidy structure, which may help ease industry competition and push price bands upward [7] Strategic Focus on Intelligence - The core strategy remains to leverage the smart technology trend, with an emphasis on AI-related sectors such as robotics, liquid cooling, and intelligent driving. The automotive sector is now influenced by a combination of factors rather than just domestic demand [8]