美元周期还在探底，人民币升值顺风未尽

External Factors - The primary driver for the RMB appreciation in 2025 is the weakening of the USD, which has declined by nearly 10% this year due to three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1] - The USD index fell to around 97 in December after failing to break the 100 resistance level, confirming a downward trend[19] - The expected mild depreciation of the USD is projected to be around 3% in 2026, with a "low first, high later" pattern anticipated[24] Internal Factors - The internal economic and policy environment in China is stabilizing, contributing to the RMB's appreciation[1] - China's exports have shown robust growth, exceeding expectations, particularly after tariff adjustments, leading to a steady appreciation channel for the USD/CNY exchange rate[14] - The internal economic surprise indices for both China and the US are trending downward, indicating limited support for the RMB from internal factors in the short term[27] Supply and Demand Factors - The supply and demand dynamics have not fully played out this year, with a decrease in market settlement willingness under a strong dollar environment[16] - Seasonal increases in foreign income in December may lead to higher settlement rates, potentially supporting RMB appreciation[21] - The rising implied volatility of the RMB and the risk reversal options favoring RMB appreciation indicate a market expectation of a wider trading range for the currency[27] Market Implications - The RMB's appreciation is expected to benefit foreign capital inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, favoring quality and growth styles[32] - The report emphasizes that the stock market's performance and fundamental improvements are more likely to drive RMB appreciation rather than the exchange rate itself influencing the stock market[32]