利率债周报：债市偏弱震荡，收益率曲线平坦化上移-20260105

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The bond market continued to fluctuate last week, with the yield curve flattening and rising. Affected by multiple factors such as the long - term local bond issuance plan in Shandong, the increase in cross - year funding costs, and better - than - expected official PMI data in December, the market sentiment weakened at the end of the year, and the bond market continued to operate weakly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented and were more lenient than expected, and the funding pressure eased after the New Year, so the bond market recovered somewhat. Overall, the bond market fluctuated weakly last week, and long - term bond yields rose slightly. For short - term bonds, although the central bank made continuous net injections before the holiday, affected by the cross - New Year's Day holiday, the increase in funding costs led to a significant rise in short - end yields, and the yield curve showed a flat upward trend. [3] - This week (the week of January 5), the bond market is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating pattern. Although the implementation of the new regulations on public fund fees and the loose funding at the beginning of the year will support the bond market to some extent, due to the high supply of local bonds with a high proportion of long - term bonds under the front - loaded fiscal efforts, the expected warming of the A - share spring market may cause capital diversion, and the "good start" of credit, the bond market will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] Group 2: Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated weakly last week. Long - term bond yields first rose and then fell, with an overall slight increase. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.39% cumulatively last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.51bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.50bp compared with the previous Friday, with the term spread narrowing. [4] - On December 29, the local bond issuance plan in Shandong broke the previous expectation of "term contraction" of local bonds, causing concerns about the supply of ultra - long - term bonds. Coupled with the cross - year funding fluctuations, the market sentiment cooled, and the bond market weakened significantly. On December 30, the market sentiment recovered somewhat, ultra - long - term bonds recovered, but medium - and short - term bonds were still weak. On December 31, the official PMI data was better than expected, the market sentiment weakened, and the bond market fluctuated weakly. On January 4, the new regulations on fund fees were implemented, which were significantly more lenient than expected, the market sentiment recovered, and the bond market had a good start. [5] Primary Market - A total of 9 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, the same as the previous week. The issuance volume was 26 billion yuan, a decrease of 184.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was - 32.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 207.4 billion yuan compared with the previous week. There were no Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds issued last week, while the issuance volume and net financing of local bonds increased compared with the previous week. The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable, with an average subscription multiple of 6.91 times for 9 local bonds issued. [16][17] Group 3: Last Week's Important Events - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a rebound of 0.9 percentage points from November; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, a rebound of 0.7 percentage points from November; the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from November. Driven by factors such as the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and the resilience of exports, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded significantly in December and returned to the expansion range since April. However, the service industry PMI index only increased slightly and was still in the contraction range, and the weak consumer demand needs further improvement. Looking forward, the supporting effect of growth - stabilizing policies on manufacturing prosperity is expected to continue, and the manufacturing PMI index in January 2026 is expected to remain in the expansion range. [19] Group 4: Real - Economy Observation - Most of the high - frequency data on the production side increased last week. The blast furnace operating rate, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants, and the average daily pig iron output all increased, while the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased significantly. From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise; the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices rebounded slightly overall last week, and most commodity prices rose. Among them, copper and rebar prices both increased, while oil prices fell significantly. [20] Group 5: Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank made a net injection of 73.74 billion yuan in the open - market last week. The R007 and DR007 first rose and then fell, with an overall decline; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks decreased slightly overall; the discount interest rates of national and stock - holding banks at all terms increased significantly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to decrease; and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased. [31][33][35]