信用分析周报（2025/12/29-2026/1/4）：长端收益率走高，利差大多小幅收窄-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, a differentiated allocation strategy should be adopted for different credit products. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to use short - duration bonds as the bottom position and select high - quality or high - quality transformation entities to extend the duration for higher returns. For industrial bonds, it is advisable to use high - quality central and state - owned enterprise industrial bonds as the bottom position and pay attention to the repair opportunities in industries or fields with marginal improvements. For secondary capital bonds, the yield of 5Y national and joint - stock secondary capital bonds has been centered around the average interest rate of 3 - and 5 - year time deposits of national banks since early 2020. Currently, the yield of 5Y national and joint - stock capital bonds is significantly higher than that of ordinary financial bonds, and the allocation value of capital bonds over 3Y should be emphasized. The implementation of punitive redemption rules may stabilize the scale of bond funds and narrow the spread of capital bonds [4][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On December 26, 2025, Tianan Life Insurance Co., Ltd. announced that the "15 Tianan Life" capital - supplementary bond could not be redeemed on schedule. After the default of Tianan Property Insurance's 5.3 billion yuan capital - supplementary bond in September 2025, Tianan Life's 2 billion yuan capital - supplementary bond also failed to be redeemed on schedule, breaking the market's perception of the "rigid payment" of insurance - related bonds. This may lead to direct principal and interest losses for bondholders, a shift in the market's evaluation of insurance capital bonds to a more in - depth consideration, an expansion of the credit spread of insurance capital bonds, and an intensification of the differentiation of tail - end entities. For the industry, the financing difficulty and cost of small and medium - sized insurance companies may increase, while large state - owned insurance companies still have advantages in financing, but the default events may also force the industry to enhance its solvency [9][10]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was - 8.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.11 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance of credit bonds was 6.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.6 billion yuan compared with last week, and the total repayment was 15.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.49 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 500 million yuan, a decrease of 1.92 billion yuan compared with last week. In terms of product types, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 660 million yuan, a decrease of 3.52 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was - 6.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.4 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was - 1.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.19 billion yuan [11]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - Due to the low overall issuance volume before the New Year's Day holiday, the average issuance interest rates of different - rated and different - type bonds changed significantly compared with last week. Specifically, the average issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and AA + urban investment bonds were all above 2.8%. The issuance interest rates of AA + industrial bonds and financial bonds were in the range of 2.5 - 2.7%, and the issuance interest rates of AAA - rated bonds of different varieties were all less than 2.3% [14]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 83.28 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 10.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.17 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 14.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.55 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 25.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.56 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 1.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 910 million yuan. In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds decreased overall compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 0.67%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 0.77%, a decrease of 1.11 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points; and the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.31%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [19]. 3.3.2 Yield - This week, the yield of 1Y short - term credit bonds decreased slightly, while the yields of credit bonds of other different ratings and maturities mostly increased. Specifically, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y decreased by no more than 2BP compared with last week; the yields of 5Y AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds increased by 3BP, 1BP, and less than 1BP respectively compared with last week; and the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds over 10Y increased by 2BP compared with last week. Taking AA + 5Y bonds of each variety as an example, the yields of different varieties fluctuated within a narrow range this week [21][22]. 3.3.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spreads of different industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week, and most of them were compressed. Specifically, the credit spread of the AA mining industry widened by 2BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of the AA + non - banking finance, pharmaceutical biology, and textile and clothing industries widened by 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively compared with last week. The credit spreads of the AAA electrical equipment and textile and clothing industries widened by less than 1BP compared with last week. In addition, the credit spreads of other industries and ratings were compressed by no more than 5BP compared with last week [27]. 3.3.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - In terms of maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds of different maturities were compressed by 1 - 2BP compared with last week. In terms of regions, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in different regions mostly decreased slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Yunnan, Jilin, Shandong, and Sichuan; the top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA + urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan; and the top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AAA urban investment bonds were Liaoning, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Jilin, and Tianjin [30][31]. 3.3.3.2 Industrial Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of 1Y short - term industrial bonds were significantly compressed, while the credit spreads of 10Y long - term industrial bonds widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA +, and AA private - placement industrial bonds were compressed by 4BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively compared with last week; the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA +, and AA private - placement industrial bonds widened by 1BP respectively compared with last week. The credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA +, and AA perpetual industrial bonds were compressed by 6BP, 6BP, and 7BP respectively compared with last week; the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA +, and AA perpetual industrial bonds widened by 1BP respectively compared with last week [34]. 3.3.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - This week, the spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 5Y were significantly compressed, while the spreads of long - term bonds over 5Y widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds were compressed by 8BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA +, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 4BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared with last week. The credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA +, and AA bank perpetual bonds were compressed by 8BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA +, and AA bank perpetual bonds widened by 5BP compared with last week [36]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - This week, the "17 Letai A2", "17 Letai Sub", and "17 Letai A1" issued by Shijiazhuang Letai Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. were extended; the "H20 Fangyuan 1" issued by Guangzhou Fangyuan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. was extended; the implied rating of the "16 Tangshan Rural Commercial Bank Tier 2" issued by Hebei Tangshan Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was downgraded; the entity rating of China People's Insurance Group Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the debt rating of the "23 PICC Group Capital - Supplementary Bond 01" it issued was downgraded; the "15 Tianan Life" issued by Tianan Life Insurance Co., Ltd. defaulted [40]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - This week, there were 62.27 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the open market, and the central bank carried out a total of 136.01 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 73.74 billion yuan for the whole week. As of the close on Friday, DR001 closed at 1.33%. Overall, the credit spreads of different industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week, and most of them were compressed. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different maturities were compressed by 1 - 2BP compared with last week. For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of 1Y short - term bonds were significantly compressed, while those of 10Y long - term bonds widened slightly. For bank capital bonds, the spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 5Y were significantly compressed, while those of long - term bonds over 5Y widened slightly [42].