Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Nuclear Power [9][48]. Core Insights - The 2026 long-term electricity prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in transaction prices across various provinces, indicating a shift in the profitability model of the power industry towards a diversified income structure [6][9]. - Natural gas consumption saw a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in November 2025, driven by heating demand and improved industrial activity, suggesting a positive outlook for the gas sector [31][33]. - The report emphasizes the need for optimization of the electricity market mechanism and restructuring of the power supply to adapt to the changing landscape [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The annual trading results for 2026 show a total transaction volume of 2,724.81 billion kWh in Jiangsu, with a weighted average price of 344.19 RMB/MWh, down 16.55% from the previous year [5][7]. - Similar trends are observed in Guangdong and Anhui, with prices decreasing by 5.03% and 10.09% respectively, indicating widespread pressure on electricity prices in coastal provinces [5][7]. - The transition of thermal power from a primary energy source to a regulatory support role is highlighted, with a shift towards a revenue model that includes capacity and auxiliary service income [6][9]. 2. Natural Gas - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas reached 36.28 billion m³, marking a 5.1% increase year-on-year, while the total consumption from January to November was 388 billion m³, a slight decline of 0.1% [31][33]. - The report notes that the increase in natural gas production and favorable pricing conditions are expected to enhance the profitability of city gas companies [33]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas trading companies and city gas firms that are likely to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [33][34]. 3. Environmental Protection - The report mentions the implementation of water price adjustments in Zhongshan and the introduction of waste disposal fees in Foshan, which are expected to improve cash flow in the environmental sector [9]. - Companies such as Zhongshan Public Utilities and Longxin Technology are highlighted as beneficiaries of these regulatory changes [9].
申万公用环保周报(25/12/27~26/1/2)：2026 年度长协电价承压，11 月天然气消费同比高增-20260105
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-05 08:33