可转债周报：节前转债有所回调，转债ETF出现积极变化-20260105

1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the convertible bonds are expected to perform strongly due to the pull of the underlying stocks and the return of funds. The recent increase in market trading volume and the strong performance of Hong Kong stocks during the New Year holiday suggest a strong short - term pulling effect of underlying stocks on convertible bonds. The signs of allocation - type funds entering the market through convertible bond ETFs and the positive impact of the new fund redemption fee regulations on the bond market sentiment are also beneficial to convertible bonds. However, the subsequent impact of the conflict between the US and Venezuela needs continuous attention. Overall, with the market risk appetite remaining high, it is still cost - effective to buy the main - line technology convertible bonds and bottom - position weighted convertible bonds on dips to prepare for the spring rally [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On December 29, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in in 2026", which optimized the support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanism of the "two new" policy in 2026 [4][6]. - On December 31, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High - quality Development of the Power Grid", aiming to build a new power grid platform by 2030, with the proportion of new energy power generation reaching about 30% [4]. - On December 31, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and issued the "Administrative Provisions on the Sales Fees of Publicly - Offered Securities Investment Funds", which optimized the redemption fee collection methods, added conditional exemption provisions for bond - type and index - type funds, and extended the transition period to 12 months [5][7]. Secondary Market - The equity market was differentiated last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.58% and 1.25% respectively. Overseas, the US employment data exceeded expectations, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations were revised down. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range for the first time since April [7]. - The convertible bond market indexes fell collectively last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, the SSE Convertible Bond Index, and the SZSE Convertible Bond Index fell 0.27%, 0.14%, and 0.45% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 8.1011 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 95.3 million yuan from the previous week. The net redemption scale of Boshi CSI Convertible Bond ETF significantly shrank to 565 million yuan, while Haitong Securities SSE Convertible Bond ETF net - subscribed 498 million yuan of convertible bonds [9]. - Structurally, low - rated convertible bonds outperformed last week, and medium - priced convertible bonds rose against the trend, while high - priced convertible bonds underperformed. In terms of historical quantiles, the median level of the underlying stock price, conversion value, and convertible bond price decreased slightly, and the conversion premium rate and trading sentiment also declined [10]. - In terms of industries, most convertible bonds in various industries rose last week. National defense and military industry convertible bonds led the market with an average increase of over 7%, and building material convertible bonds also performed well with an average increase of over 3%. Only food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery convertible bonds fell slightly. In terms of valuation, most industries' convertible bond valuations increased [11]. - In terms of individual bonds, most convertible bonds in the market fell last week. Among the rising bonds, Tianchuang Convertible Bond led the market with a weekly increase of over 58%, while among the falling bonds, Haohan Convertible Bond fell more than 13% [14]. Primary Market - No convertible bonds were issued last week. Shenyu Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, and Dingjie Convertible Bond were listed, and Zhongqi Convertible Bond and Chutian Convertible Bond were redeemed early. As of December 31, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 554.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 179.593 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and 4.491 billion yuan from the previous week [33]. - The conversion ratio of one convertible bond exceeded 5% last week, 5 less than the previous week. It was Huanxu Convertible Bond, mainly due to the high conversion caused by the negative conversion premium rate after the notice of the impending call - back clause [36][37]. - The issuance of convertible bonds by companies like Shang Sheng Electronics, Ai Wei Electronics, Chun Feng Power, and Hua Feng Measurement and Control has obtained the registration approval from the CSRC. As of last Friday, 7 convertible bonds have been approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 8.583 billion yuan, and 6 convertible bonds have passed the review of the issuance examination committee, totaling 3.361 billion yuan [37][38]. - In terms of clause tracking, one convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and one convertible bond announced an early redemption last week. Some convertible bonds also announced the impending triggering of the conversion price downward - revision condition or the early redemption condition [37].