海外宏观周报：美联储、日本央行公布偏鹰会议纪要-20260105

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate a division among officials regarding future policy paths, with a cautious signal for potential rate cuts if inflation aligns with expectations[3] - A majority of officials support further rate cuts if inflation trends downward, while some advocate for a pause to observe more data[7] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims falling to 199,000, below the expected 218,000, indicating a strong labor market[9] Group 2: Bank of Japan Developments - The Bank of Japan's December meeting minutes suggest that several members believe actual interest rates remain very low, hinting at future rate hikes[8] - The benchmark interest rate was raised to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, with expectations for further increases approximately every six months[8] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish minutes and strong employment data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.19%[4] - The Japanese bond market was closed for the New Year holiday, while European bond markets experienced overall declines[28]