瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current national cotton inspection volume in the domestic market has exceeded 6 million tons, with relatively sufficient supply. The ginning mills' cotton processing is nearing completion. Downstream textile enterprises have stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns, mostly making just - in - time purchases. Some regional warehouse inventories have slightly decreased, with overall good outbound shipments. It is expected that the national commercial inventory will still increase. However, in 2026, the expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang is rising, and the new cycle expectation of target price subsidies provides a bottom support, so there is a continuous upward driving force for short - term cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 14,655, up 70; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 180,066, down 1,730; main - contract cotton positions (daily, lots): 889,861, up 29,136; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 6,118, up 406 - Cotton yarn main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20,575, down 10; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 2,248, down 130; main - contract cotton yarn positions (daily, lots): 18,643, down 947; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 19, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B, daily, yuan/ton): 15,615, up 30; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 21,200, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff, daily, yuan/ton): 12,445, down 477; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 20,961, down 12; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty, daily, yuan/ton): 13,633, down 297; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 22,288, up 70 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,585, down 30; industrial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import quantity (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 12, up 3; cotton yarn import quantity (monthly value, monthly, tons): 150,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1,982; commercial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 468.36, up 175.3 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.33, up 0.21; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 32.34, up 0.37 - Cloth output (monthly value, monthly, billion meters): 28.1, up 1.9; yarn output (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 203.9, up 3.8 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 11,593,686, up 590,205.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 12,275,733, up 1,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 15.07, up 1.78; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 15.04, up 1.78 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 8.89, down 0.07; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.9, down 0.31 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 23, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 80,440 lots, a decrease of 2,078 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,073 lots, a decrease of 9,045 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 31,633 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots from the previous week, with a slight reduction in net short positions - The sowing progress of Brazilian cotton is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% in the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6% [2]