瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20260105

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a light - position trial of going long on the far - month contracts of eggs [2] 2) Core View - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, near - month contracts may be in a state of wide - range low - level oscillation, while far - month contracts are expected to perform better than near - month ones due to the expected decline in production capacity [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2992 yuan/500 kilograms, with the net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreasing by 7280 hands to - 45397 hands. The egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 459 yuan/500 kilograms, and the futures trading volume (active contract) increases by 113657 hands to 219525 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 [2] Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.1 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is 113 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan/500 kilograms [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (2015 = 100), down 2.21; the eliminated laying hen index is 101.18 (2015 = 100), down 13.26. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, and the new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (2015 = 100), up 26.53. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, and the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.39 yuan/hen, up 0.08 yuan/hen. The average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg, and the age of eliminated chickens nationwide is 500 days, down 10 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 17.96 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of pork is 5.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, up 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7147 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.12 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.66 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2] Viewpoint Summary - The spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state. The market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens has slightly slowed down recently. High production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [2]