Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-05 09:14Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The I2605 contract fluctuated strongly on Monday. In terms of macro, on January 4th, US President Trump threatened Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, the arrival volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. Overall, the ports are in a trend of inventory accumulation, while the in - plant inventory is at a medium - low level, and there is still an expectation of stockpiling in the long term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are sorted above the 0 axis. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 797 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan; the position volume was 618,775 lots, up 25,428 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 16,904 lots, up 1,762 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 2,000 lots, up 700 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.75 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.41 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 854 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port was 756 yuan/dry ton. The price of 60.5% Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 856 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan. The I main contract basis (Macfayden powder dry ton - main contract) was 59 yuan, down 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 105.50 US dollars/ton (previous day), down 3 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 3.01, down 0.02. The estimated import cost was 852 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,213.70 million tons, down 463.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,824.70 million tons, up 96.90 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 16,721.79 million tons, up 101.83 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,946.54 million tons, up 86.35 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,054.00 million tons, down 77.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.56 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 0%, down 58.66%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 0 million tons, down 45.90 million tons. The BDI index was 1,882, up 5. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.21 US dollars/ton, down 1.40 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.46 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 78.96%, up 0.66%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.28%, up 0.32%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,987 million tons, down 213 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 14.57%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 13.88%, up 0.16%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.14%, down 0.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 17.72%, up 1.46% [2]. Industry News - From December 29, 2025 to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,213.7 million tons, down 463.4 million tons. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,742.7 million tons, down 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,824.7 million tons, up 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,756.4 million tons, up 155.0 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,512.9 million tons, up 182.3 million tons [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The I2605 contract fluctuated strongly on Monday. The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipment volume decreased, the arrival volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. The ports showed a trend of inventory accumulation, the in - plant inventory was at a medium - low level, and there was still an expectation of stockpiling in the long term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were sorted above the 0 axis. It was recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2].