Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-05 09:12Report Summary - Report Date: January 5, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Urea Industry Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - The resumption of some previously overhauled plants has led to an increase in domestic urea production. With 3 plants planning to stop production and 5 shut - down plants possibly resuming production this week, the probability of an increase in production is high. Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, trading atmosphere is tepid, and downstream buyers are resistant to high - price goods, mostly adopting a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial sectors maintain rigid procurement. Considering some plant restarts, urea enterprise inventory may increase slightly this week. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1790 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - Closing Price: The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1768 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton [3] - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [3] - Position: The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 218,596 lots, up 16,774 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,527 [3] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 12,376, down 5 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Domestic Prices: Prices in Hebei are 1720 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Henan 1710 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton); in Jiangsu 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Shandong 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Anhui 1710 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [3] - International Prices: FOB Baltic is 355 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton); FOB China's main port is 400 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars/ton) [3] - Basis: The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 58 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - Inventory: Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, up 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 101.92 million tons, down 4.97 million tons [3] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of urea enterprises is 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points; the daily output of urea is 194,200 tons, up 3,700 tons [3] - Export Volume: Urea export volume is 60 million tons, down 60 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - Operating Rate: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.89%, down 3.86 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 47.65%, down 10.42 percentage points [3] - Profit: The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton [3] - Output: The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, up 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, down 300 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 31, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 101.92 million tons, down 4.97 million tons from last week, a 4.65% decrease. The decline rate narrowed. The overall inventory is still in a downward trend due to some plant overhauls, reserves, and appropriate promotion of rigid demand [3] - As of December 31, the sample inventory of China's urea ports was 17.2 million tons, down 0.5 million tons, a 2.82% decrease. Port changes were small, and the pace of manufacturers' goods collection to ports slowed down approaching the holiday [3] - As of December 31, China's urea output was 1.3591 billion tons, up 25.7 million tons from last week, a 1.93% increase; the weekly average daily output was 194,200 tons, up 3,700 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - The operating rate of enterprises fluctuates little. Pay attention to the weather and local environmental protection conditions. Also, pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [3]