瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in caustic soda prices has led to a narrowing of the profit margin for Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises, but they are still in a theoretically profitable state. With fewer planned maintenance capacities for chlor - alkali in January and the resumption of previously shut - down facilities, domestic chlor - alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating rate. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will remain basically stable, and non - aluminum downstream industries will maintain rigid demand with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda in the spot market remain relatively loose, and the purchase and market prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong have recently decreased. Although there are many planned alumina production facilities to be put into operation in the first half of the year, the long - term low profit in the industry has increased the expectation of production cuts in the future. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2090 and resistance around 2200 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda futures contract was 175,556 lots, an increase of 29,993 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 21,007 lots, a decrease of 1,725 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda futures contract was 313,841 lots, an increase of 25,637 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 1963 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2303 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2156.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.63 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was - 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry Data - From December 27 to January 2, the capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda was 86.4%, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The alumina operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 84.67%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.61% to 85.42%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 60.81%. As of January 2, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a 9.84% increase from the previous week. From December 25 to January 4, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous period [2]. 3.7 Industry News - SH2603 opened with a downward gap and closed down 3.82% at 2,164 yuan/ton. Recently, the resumption of some facilities in North, East, and South China has led to an increase in the average national capacity utilization rate of caustic soda [2].