亚洲丙烷平衡表搭建框架

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Asia is the core recipient region for global LPG exports, with supply mainly from the Middle East and the United States, and imports concentrated in a few key Asian countries/regions. The global LPG exports to Asia feature high concentration at the export - end, a trend towards Asia - bound flow, and a situation where the import - end is dominated by a few countries with distinct demand attributes [2][7][9]. - In 2026, the incremental supply of Asian propane is relatively clear, but the time and rhythm of capacity realization need attention. The demand shows significant regional marginal differentiation. The annual supply - demand pattern of Asian propane is expected to evolve from tight in the first half to loose in the second half [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Asian Propane Trade Flows - Global LPG supply to Asia is mainly from the Middle East and the United States. As of 2025, the Middle East's propane export to Asia exceeded 25 million tons/year, with the UAE, Iran, and Qatar being major exporters. The US exports over 30 million tons of propane to Asia annually, affecting the regional price and supply - demand balance. Other regions like Canada, Australia, and West Africa play a supplementary role [7]. - Asian propane imports are concentrated in China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. China's imports account for nearly 40%, with a "chemical - dominated" demand structure. India accounts for about 20%, with demand mainly for residential combustion. Japan focuses on combustion - related demand, South Korea on chemical device operations, and Southeast Asia has seen incremental demand due to large - scale chemical device investments [9]. 3.2 Supply: Incremental Supply is Relatively Clear, Focus on Actual Capacity Release 3.2.1 Middle East: Monitor OPEC+ Production Policy and New Capacity Release - In 2025, Middle Eastern LPG exports reached 47.66 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of about 4.0%. The UAE, Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait are major exporters. Over 95% of Middle Eastern LPG is shipped to Asia, with 45% going to India and 38% to China [10][14]. - In 2026, new LPG capacity projects are concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Iran. In the first half, the focus is on whether UAE projects can be realized, with an expected monthly incremental supply of about 0.5 VLGCs if successful. In the second half, the key lies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. If projects like Jafurah, Tanajib, and North Field East are launched as planned, it will significantly increase the Middle East's LPG export capacity, with a potential monthly incremental supply of 2 - 4 VLGCs [17]. - Iran's LPG exports are expected to remain flat in 2026, as the country can meet the demand of new PDH plants by increasing domestic production [18]. 3.2.2 United States: Moderate Production Growth and Significantly Improved Export Capacity - From January to November 2025, US LPG exports were 62.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. China's imports from the US decreased, while India and Southeast Asia increased their purchases. European imports also rose [19]. - In 2026, the US propane export capacity is expected to support an additional monthly supply of about 3 - 4 VLGCs. However, US propane production growth is expected to slow down, with an expected annual increase of about 750,000 tons and a year - on - year growth rate dropping to about 1%. But due to high inventory levels, production will not significantly limit exports in the short term [23][24]. 3.3 Demand: Regional Marginal Factors Differ, and Pay Attention to the Realization Rhythm of Chemical - End Impact in 2026 3.3.1 China: Dominated by Chemical Use, PDH Determines Marginal Changes - In 2025, China's propane imports were about 25 - 26 million tons. The demand is mainly for chemical use, with PDH accounting for about 81%, cracking for about 15%, and combustion for about 4% [28]. - By the end of 2025, China's PDH total capacity was close to 25 million tons/year, with a new - capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2026, the new - capacity growth rate will slow down to 5%. PDH device profits are expected to recover, and the average operating rate is expected to rise, driving an annual propane demand increase of about 1.5 - 2 million tons [31][37]. - In 2025, the demand for propane in domestic cracking devices decreased. In 2026, this weak demand is expected to continue [38][40]. - China's propane combustion demand is mainly in South China, with a small scale and limited impact on overall imports [42]. 3.3.2 Japan: Dominated by Combustion Use, Import Demand Shows Seasonal Fluctuations - In 2025, Japan's propane imports were about 8.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.4%. The demand is mainly for combustion, and the import volume has seasonal characteristics. In 2026, Japan's import dependence will remain high, and the import volume is expected to remain stable at a high level [45][48]. 3.3.3 South Korea: Dominated by Chemical Use, Cracking Determines Import Rhythm - In 2025, South Korea's domestic propane production was about 550,000 tons, and imports were about 6.4 million tons. Propane demand is mainly for chemical and industrial use. In 2026, South Korea's propane import demand is mainly restricted by the operation of chemical devices [50][53][55]. 3.3.4 India and Southeast Asia - In 2025, India's propane imports increased by about 8% year - on - year. In 2026, the growth of combustion demand will slow down, and chemical demand will increase due to new PDH and ethylene cracking devices [56]. - In 2025, Southeast Asia's propane demand increased due to the commissioning of new cracking devices. In 2026, the propane chemical demand in Vietnam's Long Son device may decrease, but the time is uncertain [56]. 3.4 2026 Asian Propane Balance Sheet - In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of Asian propane will evolve from tight in the first half to loose in the second half. In the first quarter, the supply is still tight but shows marginal improvement. The demand is supported by combustion in Japan, South Korea, and India, while the chemical - end demand is under pressure. In the second quarter, the market is in a transition phase. In the second half of the year, the supply will increase as new capacity is released, and the demand growth will slow down, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern [58].