玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强-20260105

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "shock - biased upward" [1] 2. Report's Core View - Recently, the consecutive cold - repairs of glass production lines have led to a short - term concentrated contraction in supply, boosting market sentiment. However, due to weak demand expectations and high inventory, prices are difficult to rebound quickly. Therefore, short - term prices may maintain a shock - biased upward trend. Attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and the cold - repair situation of production lines [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass main contract opened high and closed low, weakening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands have an upward - opening three - track, indicating a short - term shock - biased upward signal. The upper Bollinger Band line is the short - term pressure, and the 5/20 - day moving averages on the daily chart are the support. The trading volume decreased by 442,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 11,153 lots. The intraday high was 1097, the low was 1076, and the closing price was 1081, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: The Hebei market was mainly stable, with good sales of large - sized glass and average sales of small - sized glass, and downstream buyers were cautious. The East China market maintained stable prices for sales, and the overall situation was okay, with rigid demand still being the mainstream. The Central China market had little fluctuation, mainly driven by rigid demand. In the Northwest market, processing plants were gradually on holiday, and the market had prices but no transactions. In the Southwest market, prices were temporarily stable, and the price of some ultra - white glass increased by 40 [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1000, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1st, the daily average output of national float glass was 151,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% compared to the 25th. The national float glass output was 1.0733 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.38%. The industry's average opening rate was 73.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%; the average capacity utilization rate was 76.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. Five production lines were shut down for cold - repair last week, and the supply showed an obvious downward trend [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.757 million heavy boxes or 3.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.96%. The inventory days were 25.6 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared to the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and the inventory has shifted from enterprises to the middle and lower reaches due to sales policies, the release of speculative demand, and the reduction of production capacity [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, with the executable order days decreasing and currently concentrated between 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are still mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] - Profit: As of January 1st, according to Longzhong Information, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 191.40 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 24.36 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 17.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 65.23 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 43.34 yuan/ton). The spot price of glass and fuel prices have both decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of production lines has continued to deteriorate, with the average profit of different fuels in continuous losses for 10 weeks [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply: Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the elimination of production capacity of some enterprises. Five glass production lines were shut down for cold - repair last week. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned the rectification of "involution - style" competition before the holiday, briefly boosting market sentiment [4] - Demand: Real estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real estate demand has continued to weaken [4]