纯碱日报：短线震荡-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall supply of soda ash is in a loose pattern, with short - term support but weakening rigid demand and increasing inventory, so the price may fluctuate in the short term. Continue to monitor downstream demand [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, showing a weak trend during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The intraday pressure was near the 30 - day moving average, and the support was near the previous secondary low. The trading volume increased by 117,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 101,000 lots. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1169, and the closing price was 1177, down 32 yuan/ton or 2.65% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: It showed a weak and volatile trend. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation. Jiangsu Debang started up and gradually recovered, and the supply increased. Most downstream enterprises were on the sidelines, with poor purchasing sentiment, and mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 73 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1st, the domestic soda ash production was 697,100 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons or 2.07% month - on - month. Among them, the light soda ash production was 326,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons month - on - month; the heavy soda ash production was 371,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons month - on - month. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 79.96%, compared with 81.65% last week, a decrease of 1.69% month - on - month. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 79.21%, a decrease of 4.11% month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 72.77%, a decrease of 1.08% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 85.91%, an increase of 0.11% month - on - month [2] - Inventory: As of January 5th, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,508,400 tons, an increase of 100,100 tons or 7.11% from the previous period. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 795,700 tons, an increase of 63,500 tons month - on - month, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 712,700 tons, an increase of 36,600 tons month - on - month [2] - Demand: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 72,730 tons, a decrease of 5.87% month - on - month; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 104.33%, a decrease of 4.21% month - on - month. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2] - Profit: As of January 1st, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 35.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.17% month - on - month. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 95.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.2% month - on - month. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal changed slightly, with little fluctuation in the cost side [3][4] - Import and Export: In November, the domestic soda ash export volume was 189,400 tons, a decrease of 25,100 tons month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to November was 1,961,200 tons, an increase of 922,500 tons compared with the same period last year. In November, the domestic soda ash import volume was 25 tons. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2,170 tons, a decrease of 946,700 tons or 97.76% compared with the same period last year. In November, the net export of domestic soda ash was 189,200 tons; the cumulative net export from January to November was 1,939,500 tons [4] Main Logic Summary - Although the current soda ash production has decreased, the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production remains at a high level. Last week, 5 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, the rigid demand for soda ash weakened, and the inventory increased. However, due to continuous losses and the rebound of coal prices, there is still some short - term support. Overall, although there is short - term support for soda ash, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the price may fluctuate in the short term. Continue to pay attention to downstream demand [5]