节后铜铝增仓上行

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper: After the holiday, SHFE copper opened higher and moved up, with the open interest rising continuously. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. The spot discount turned into a premium, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to rise. The copper price stood above the 100,000 yuan mark again, with obvious capital inflows and strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [6]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price opened higher and moved up in the morning, with a significant increase in open interest and an intraday increase of more than 3%. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. High aluminum prices inhibited downstream consumption, and the industry followed passively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. The recent strong performance of the aluminum price was partly due to the loose macro - environment and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. When copper was strong, the copper - aluminum ratio began to decline from a high level before the holiday. In the short term, the aluminum price approached the 24,000 yuan mark, the high levels in 2021 and 2022, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - Nickel: The nickel price rose first and then fell, and then the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 134,000 yuan, with the open interest rising continuously during the day. Since late December, the nickel price has rebounded from the 110,000 yuan mark to the 130,000 yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decline in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the nickel price increased with rising open interest, reversing the downward trend. Technically, SHFE nickel has reached the rebound high in March 2025, with certain technical pressure and intensified long - short competition [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Copper: On January 5, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared with the 31st [10]. - Aluminum: On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared with the 25th [10]. - Nickel: On January 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 133,700 - 142,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 138,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. - Nickel: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].