甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market showed a mixed trend last week, with the port market strengthening and the inland market declining. The port inventory continued to accumulate, but the import volume is expected to decrease. The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor, and the domestic methanol production is expected to remain high. The demand for methanol downstream is expected to increase this week. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 05 contract at the 2300 line [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The port methanol market continued to strengthen last week, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2240 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2100 - 2190 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline, with the price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1800 - 1845 yuan/ton. The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor, and the domestic methanol production is expected to remain high. The Middle - East seasonal gas restriction has taken effect, and the port arrivals in January are expected to decrease. The overall demand for methanol downstream is expected to increase this week. The methanol supply is abundant, and the port inventory is rising at a high level. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 05 contract at the 2300 line [1] 3.2 Factors to Watch - Methanol production start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The basis (Jiangsu) increased from - 16 yuan/ton to - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 93.75%. The inventory of inland methanol sample enterprises increased from 40.4 tons to 42.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.60%. The port methanol inventory increased from 141.25 tons to 147.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.59%. The weekly output decreased from 207.21 tons to 205.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia decreased from - 161.2 yuan/ton to - 235.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.09%. The profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in North China decreased from 147 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.77%. The profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China increased from - 320 yuan/ton to - 260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.75%. The downstream acetic acid start - up rate increased from 77.59% to 80.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.49%. The downstream olefin production start - up rate decreased from 88.68% to 88.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02% [3] 3.4 Period and Spot Market Review - The port methanol market continued to strengthen last week, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2240 yuan/ton [7] 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 90.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 235.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.09% and a significant year - on - year decrease. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 173.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 330.67%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 170.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 190.08%. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 115.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 75.00%. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 260.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.75% and a significant year - on - year decrease [8] 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - As of January 1, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 69.18%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from last week. Some plants in Jiangsu slightly adjusted their loads. There were no unexpected failures in the glacial acetic acid plants during the week, and the previous plants returned to normal operation, so the capacity utilization rate increased [10] 3.7 Inventory Analysis - As of December 31, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.74 tons, an increase of 6.49 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 3.98 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.51 tons [12] 3.8 Position Analysis - As of December 31, the long positions of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market were 596,925, a decrease of 77,494, and the short positions were 703,897, a decrease of 65,221. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15]