纯碱周报：新产能投放压力较大，震荡偏弱-20260105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market is trending downward with prices dropping and the center of gravity shifting lower. New production capacity is under significant pressure, and the market is expected to be volatile and weak. The 05 contract has an upper pressure level at 1,225 [2]. - Current soda ash enterprise profits are poor. This week, domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. Downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected production of downstream float glass will decline slightly, while the production of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable for now. With the terminal gradually shutting down, component purchases have decreased, leading to a reduction in photovoltaic glass consumption. In the context of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to changes in soda ash production [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market trended downward last week, with a production of 69.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 tons (2.07% decline). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 79.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 140.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.02 tons (2.10% decline). The acceptance of new orders by soda ash enterprises slowed down [2]. - In the future, soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level, downstream demand will be moderately weak, and inventory will remain high. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the near future [2]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash production, new production capacity release progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data Spot and Futures Market Review - The East China soda ash market was stable last week, with prices slightly adjusted. The futures price was volatile and stable, and the basis in the East China market was relatively stable [6]. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 1, domestic soda ash production was 69.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 tons (2.07% decline), including 32.61 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 tons) and 37.10 tons of dense soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons). The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the combined soda process was - 35.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 73.17%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 95.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 66.20% [7]. Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic glass: As of January 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic photovoltaic glass was 67.03%, unchanged from the previous week. In December, the price of photovoltaic glass was reduced multiple times, from 12.5 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the month to 11 - 11.5 yuan/square meter, a decline of about 12%. In January, the supply - demand contradiction may still exist, prices may further decline, and industry losses may intensify, potentially forcing enterprises to cut production or cold - repair [12]. - Float glass: As of January 1, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 73.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 76.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points. One production line has a water - release plan this week, and production may decline slightly [12]. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 31, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 140.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.02 tons (2.10% decline), including 73.22 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 tons) and 67.61 tons of dense soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 2.69 tons) [14]. Position Analysis - As of December 31, the long - position volume held by the top 20 members of the soda ash futures was 637,821, a decrease of 55,163; the short - position volume was 780,664, a decrease of 44,638. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [16].