Donghai Securities·2026-01-05 11:06Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating through a bottoming phase in performance, showcasing both dividend and value attributes [3]. - The bank's operating metrics remain significantly ahead of industry peers despite the ongoing industry downturn, with expectations for easing operational pressures as net interest margin (NIM) pressure subsides and non-interest income stabilizes [3]. Summary by Sections Scale - The growth momentum is shifting towards new areas as the banking sector transitions to a phase of high-quality development, with a fundamental change in the drivers of scale expansion [9]. - The bank's loan growth is slightly lower than asset growth, with a focus on optimizing retail and corporate loan ratios to balance growth and risk [10]. Net Interest Margin - The bank maintains a solid absolute advantage in net interest margin, with downward pressure easing [17]. - Despite facing challenges from asymmetric interest rate cuts, the bank's NIM remains significantly higher than the industry average due to its strong low-cost funding capabilities [19]. Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality management is prudent, providing a relative advantage in the current credit cycle [25]. - The bank has effectively managed its exposure to real estate risks and is expected to see a slowdown in retail risk increases following strategic adjustments [28]. Non-Interest Income - The darkest period for non-interest income has passed, with wealth management showing leading recovery potential [39]. - As macroeconomic expectations stabilize, the bank's wealth management business is anticipated to regain its role as a core driver of profitability [41]. Shareholder Returns - The bank's dividend payout ratio is among the highest in the industry, reflecting its strong capital management and ability to balance risk and shareholder returns [44]. - The bank's robust provisioning allows it to maintain high dividends without compromising on risk management [46]. Investment Recommendations - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 338 billion, 350 billion, and 371 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 0.15%, 3.52%, and 5.95% [53]. - The bank's current valuation is at a historical low, with strong dividend yield and ROE, indicating a dual attribute of dividend and value, making it an attractive investment opportunity during this performance bottoming phase [53].