银河期货航运日报-20260105

Group 1: Market Data Futures Market - EC2602 closed at 1855.5 points on January 5, up 3.01% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 22,903.0 lots, up 6.50%, and the open interest was 26,046.0 lots, up 7.94% [4]. - EC2604 closed at 1,198.0 points, up 2.74%. The trading volume was 8,562.0 lots, up 89.97%, and the open interest was 22,629.0 lots, up 8.17% [4]. - EC2606 closed at 1,389.0 points, up 1.54%. The trading volume was 500.0 lots, up 20.77%, and the open interest was 2,201.0 lots, up 2.28% [4]. - EC2608 closed at 1,502.3 points, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 127.0 lots, up 95.38%, and the open interest was 1,188.0 lots, down 0.59% [4]. - EC2610 closed at 1,082.6 points, up 2.13%. The trading volume was 948 lots, up 197.18%, and the open interest was 6,055 lots, up 0.51% [4]. - EC2612 closed at 1,311.9 points, up 1.15%. The trading volume was 21 lots, up 61.54%, and the open interest was 48 lots, down 17.24% [4]. Spread Structure - The spread between EC02 - EC04 was 658, up 22.2; EC02 - EC06 was 467, up 33.1; EC04 - EC06 was -191, up 10.9; EC02 - EC08 was 353, up 51.9; EC04 - EC08 was -304, up 29.7; EC04 - EC10 was 115, up 9.4; EC06 - EC08 was -113, up 18.8; EC08 - EC10 was 420, down 20.3 [4]. Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line Index was 1795.83 points, up 3.05% week - on - week and down 46.99% year - on - year. SCFIS US West Line Index was 1250.12 points, down 3.94% week - on - week and down 55.71% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Composite Index was 1656.32 points, up 6.66% week - on - week and down 30.70% year - on - year. SCFI Shanghai - West Africa was 3201 USD/TEU, up 6.57% week - on - week and down 29.21% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Shanghai - US West was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% week - on - week and down 47.88% year - on - year. SCFI Shanghai - South Africa was 2356 USD/TEU, down 1.14% week - on - week and down 32.90% year - on - year [4]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was 57.31 dollars/barrel, down 0.81% week - on - week and down 20.93% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price was 60.55 dollars/barrel, down 1.19% week - on - week and down 19.8% year - on - year [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - The market has differences on the January freight rate peak and subsequent price adjustment rhythm, and the futures market maintains high - level volatility. On January 5, EC2602 closed at 1855.5 points, up 3.01%. On December 26, the SCFI European Line quoted 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European Line Index released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1795.83 points, up 3% week - on - week, slightly lower than expected due to the delay and skipping of four low - price ships in week 52 [6]. Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam in week 3 was 2700 USD/HC, and Shanghai - Hamburg was 2800/HC, up about 100 USD week - on - week. OOCL's January first - half quote was around 2700 - 2900, COSCO/CMA's offline quote in January first - half was around 3000, EMC's was 2900 - 2950, YML's offline quote in January first - half was 2650, and 2400 with open volume, ONE's online/offline quote in January first - half was 2800, and 3300 online in the second half, HMM's offline quote in the second week of January was 2600, MSC's online/offline quote in January first - half was 2840, and 3140 in the second half [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve. On January 5, 2026, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in January/February/March was 30.74/27.59/28.33 million TEU. Compared with the previous period (December 29), the capacity in January and February decreased slightly. There were 3 additional ship suspensions and 2 additional ships in January, and 2 additional blank sailings and some ship delays in February [7]. - Geopolitically, the US strike on Venezuela has caused short - term sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and concerns about long - term energy supply chain restructuring. It may increase fuel costs in the short term and put pressure on oil prices in the long term, also affecting the trade pattern. Currently, the conflict has little impact on container shipping routes, but the subsequent scale and scope of the conflict need attention [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level volatile view. Most long positions in the EC2602 contract should take profit at high levels, and the remaining light positions can be held depending on the situation. Pay attention to the strength of the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations [8]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Group 3: Industry News - On January 3, US President Trump ordered strikes on targets in Venezuela, including military facilities [12]. - Trump postponed the new round of tariff increase measures on soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanity cabinets by one year to 2027. These tariffs were originally scheduled to take effect last Thursday [12]. Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [13].