震坤行（ZKH）：一站式MRO服务平台，业绩或进入修复周期

Investment Rating - The report suggests to pay attention to the company due to its potential for valuation recovery and the prospect of turning profitable in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company operates as a one-stop digital industrial supplies service platform, primarily serving manufacturing enterprises to reduce procurement and management costs while enhancing supply chain efficiency [2]. - The overall GMV for 2024 is projected to be 10.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 20.5% from 2020 to 2024 [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue was 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, indicating a return to positive revenue growth [2]. - The company aims for a GMV growth rate of 15-20% in 2026, with an adjusted net profit target of 150 million yuan [4]. Company Overview - The company holds a market share of approximately 1.5% in the MRO procurement service market, with its GMV, total revenue, and gross profit being about 31%, 40%, and 36% of JD Industrial's, respectively [3][11]. - The company’s gross margin stands at 16.8%, slightly lower than JD Industrial's 18.6% [3][18]. - The adjusted net loss for the third quarter of 2025 was 14 million yuan, a significant reduction compared to previous quarters [2][9]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 2.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a gross profit of 390 million yuan, maintaining a stable gross margin [2][9]. - Operating expenses have decreased, with sales, R&D, and administrative expenses down by 13%, 19%, and 17% year-on-year, respectively [2][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3 2025 was 8 million yuan, showing improvement compared to previous periods [9]. Industry Outlook - The industrial supply chain technology and service market in China is expected to reach approximately 800 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a rate of 6.6% year-on-year [3]. - The industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2029, driven by strong demand for procurement efficiency and cost reduction among industrial enterprises [3].